Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 160826
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
326 AM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018

There are a lot of weak echoes on area radars indicative of
flurries streaming across most of the region early this morning.
This will likely continue past sunrise and then gradually come to
an end from west to east through mid-afternoon. The final impulse
rotating southeast around the departing upper storm system around
midday will push the last of the flurries/sprinkles east of the
region by 20Z.

Clearing of the low clouds will lag behind the flurries and
sprinkles, and will not reach the Mississippi River until around
Noon. It should clear the entire area by sunset. The stubborn low
clouds will hold temperatures below 50F east of the Mississippi
River, and Pike and Spencer Counties in Indiana may not reach 40F.
Throw in west northwest winds gusting over 30 mph at times and it
will not feel good at all today, especially across the EVV Tri
State.

Surface high pressure will settle over the region tonight, leading
to diminishing winds. There may be just enough of a gradient to
keep a light wind in the eastern third of the area, but elsewhere
winds will be nearly calm. Dewpoints are forecast to remain in the
mid to upper 20s over much of the area tonight, so a frost and/or
a freeze will be likely again tonight.

We will be issuing a Freeze Warning for areas along and north of
a Pinckneyville Illinois to Owensboro Kentucky line, and a Frost
Advisory north of a Greenville Missouri to Smithland and Cadiz
Kentucky line. These areas roughly align with low temperatures at
or below 30F for the Warning and 34F for the Advisory. We will
likely be closer to saturation than currently forecast over most
of the area, which could result in colder temperatures and more of
a freeze in the Frost Advisory area. Either way the assault on
tender young vegetation will continue tonight.

A transient upper ridge will build into the region Tuesday into
Tuesday night, as another storm system pushes east into the
central and northern Plains. This system will be progressive and
result in a warm front moving through our region Tuesday and
Tuesday night and a cold front moving through at some point
Wednesday.

Surface high pressure will have the Gulf locked up tight, so
there will be no moisture for the boundaries to work with and our
forecast will remain dry. There will be a nice elevated mixed
layer overspreading the area Tuesday and Tuesday night, so we will
see nice warming to near normal Tuesday and above normal
Wednesday. Southwest to west winds will gust over 30 mph at times
on Wednesday, as the surface system passes by to our north.


.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018

High confidence in the extended through the week but once again
decreasing this weekend as models diverge on solution. However the
GFS is now slowing down a bit coming into better agreement with the
later starting time as the ECMWF for pops. I do expect this trend to
continue as typical.

Models have finally come into agreement that the northern track of
the low mid week will be moisture starved and too far north to bring
rain chances to the area. It does appear by Thursday the wrap around
moisture should remain just north of the region. However cold and
gusty northwest winds will take over bringing temperatures 10 to 15
degrees below normal. This should keep any freeze out of the
question and should keep any frost isolated at best. High pressure
at the surface and ridging aloft will keep us dry at least until the
weekend. In fact the low levels stay very dry and convective
parameters are not present in forecast sounding with CAPES at zero
and positive LI`s no surface based convection is expected. Even the
elevated parameters are not present with K index values going
negative and showalters positive...therefore no mention of thunder
at this time. In addition the GFS deterministic model is slowing
down and coming more in line with the ECMWF. So will hold off pop
mention at least until Saturday night if not Sunday. With the
exception of Saturday we should stay below normal temperatures
through the extended. My confidence in rain this weekend continues
to decrease. Also with almost no areas expected to get more than a
half inch in a six hour period and decreasing confidence in rainfall
...opted to leave out moderate or heavy rain in the weekend period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

VFR cigs will be maintained at KPAH/KCGI while MVFR cigs will
continue to be possible over KEVV/KOWB. Breaks in both cigs are
possible overnight. Gusty winds will continue as well but may
subside from time to time. Ceiling heights will gradually rise on
Monday and finally become predominately VFR at KEVV/KOWB by
afternoon. Gusty winds will continue in the morning and afternoon
hours on Monday. All sites will begin clearing out between 00-03Z
Tuesday with the gusty winds subsiding as well.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Frost Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM CDT Tuesday for
     ILZ084>094.

     Freeze Warning until 10 AM CDT this morning for ILZ075>078-
     080>086-088-089-092.

     Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM CDT Tuesday for
     ILZ075>078-080>083.

MO...Frost Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM CDT Tuesday for
     MOZ076-086-087-100-111.

     Freeze Warning until 10 AM CDT this morning for MOZ076-086-087-
     100-107>111.

IN...Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM CDT Tuesday for
     INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...Frost Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM CDT Tuesday for
     KYZ004-005-007-010>017-020>022.

     Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM CDT Tuesday for
     KYZ018-019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...KH


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