000
FXUS63 KPAH 132308
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
608 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm weekend weather will continue with highs into the 70s to
  lower and mid 80s.

- There is a chance for strong to severe thunderstorms late
  Tuesday into Tuesday night and again Thursday.

- Cooler temperatures are forecast next weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 602 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Updated aviation discussion for 00z TAFs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 140 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Surface high pressure and mid level ridging will move east of
the area, paving the way for a milder night with south breezes,
and very warm and breezy conditions Sunday. Just some higher
clouds from time to time. The model soundings suggest dry
conditions with a pronounced warm layer 5-10k/ft and very
limited elevated instability present, and with dry air aloft.
No PoPs planned at this time for Sunday.

For Monday, the day should start off warm. Several model
solutions drop a frontal boundary into our southern IL and
southwest IN counties in the afternoon. The model soundings are
more favorable looking for convection Monday afternoon in this
area. Farther south some capping should remain in place from
SEMO into west KY. How far south is unclear. We added a chance
of convection as a result. This chance should migrate north
overnight Monday as the boundary does the same.

Tuesday through Tuesday night, attention will turn to a deepening
mid level low and associated surface low pressure over the
Plains. A broad warm sector will cover our region, with
increasing moisture from the afternoon through the nighttime
hours. Overall wind shear will be on the increase. There could
be isolated convection in the afternoon ahead of the main show
as there will be increasing elevated instability, while more
surface based activity takes shape farther west into Missouri.
We will watch how the models handle the surface based activity
as it moves east Tuesday night. The other thing is we are
forecasting highs upwards of 80, which is higher than what the
models raw output shows. Modified forecast soundings show there
may be greater instability present than what`s in the models.
That would lend to a higher severe chance, especially since the
shear is a given. The focus area should be southern IL,
southeast MO and far west KY.

Shower and thunderstorm chances will move east by Wednesday
with a lull expected into Wednesday night. There will be another
chance of thunderstorms Thursday-Thursday night as a boundary
moves across the area. Some of the storms may be strong to
locally severe. But overall confidence is low given how far out
in time we are talking, and some model variance.

Drier weather is forecast Friday into the Weekend. Temperatures
will be cooler as well, as a rather strong area of high
pressure builds southeast and into the area.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 602 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

VFR conditions prevail as high cirrus clouds spread across the
region through tonight. Light south winds between 5-10 kts are
expected.

The pressure gradient tightens on Sunday resulting in less
tranquil conditions. Southerly winds between 10-15 kts and gusts
20-25 kts are progged. FEW-SCT mid level clouds around 3.5-4.0
kft AGL are also possible in the afternoon.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DW
DISCUSSION...CN
AVIATION...DW