733
FXUS61 KPBZ 012329
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
729 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
The remainder of the work week will be dry and warm as
temperatures will continue to be above normal. A slight cool
down is expected this weekend with returning rain chances.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Warm and dry overnight.

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A weakening front will drop south across the region  from the
northwest overnight, but with limited moisture and lift the only
impact will be a shift in the light winds and a slight increase
in cloud coverage. Latest ensemble guidance shows single digit
probabilities for any precipitation amount over a 6 hour period
north of PGH. Overnight lows should bottom out around 10 degrees
above normal for the beginning of May.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry weather and above-normal temperatures continue Thursday
  and through most of Friday.

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Dry weather and above-normal temperatures continue Thursday and
once again through much of Friday. Temperatures settle into the
50s by early Thursday morning before climbing back into the 80s
(upper 70s north of I-80) Thursday afternoon. In fact, even
better NBM probabilities are in place for Thursday and Friday
high temperatures. Looking 80% to 99% probabilities of 80
degree highs or greater. Friday looks like the warmest day of
the week. High pressure will continue to support above- normal
temps and dry conditions Thursday night with lows ranging from
upper 50s south of I-80 to low 50s farther north.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- An unsettled pattern returns Friday evening into Friday night
  through the weekend with above-average temperatures and
  periods of showers and thunderstorms favored.

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Ensembles continue to indicate a more active weather pattern
setting up into the weekend as an upper level trough pushes
eastward over the Great Lakes, shunting the ridge axis
southeastward and bringing a deep-layer southwest flow to the
region. Periods of showers and thunderstorms can be expected
Friday afternoon through the weekend, though exact timing and
intensity of any given round of convection remains uncertain due
to the complex nature of the more active pattern. The latest
ensemble runs continue to paint Friday night and Saturday as the
most likely periods to see widespread shower and thunderstorm
activity, though there also continues to be some signal for
scattered convection lingering through Sunday and even into
early next week.

At this time, a widespread severe weather threat appears
unlikely due to a lack of notable instability or bulk shear. The
same can be said about the threat for a widespread flood
threat, as ensemble probabilities for widespread rainfall
amounts of an inch or greater remain low (30% or less) across
the area during any given 24-hour period this weekend. That
said, heavier rain rates in thunderstorms could result in a
localized minor flood threat for low-lying and urban areas. For
this reason, the Weather Prediction Center has highlighted a
Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall across eastern OH, western
PA, and northern WV on Saturday. Stay tuned for more details on
timing and impacts as we get closer to the weekend.

Temperatures Saturday through Tuesday also trend above normal,
but remain in the 70s due to thickening cloud cover and an
increasing coverage of showers and storms. The overall synoptic
pattern certainly would suggest a busy stretch of days starting
this weekend into next week.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail under high pressure. A wave of mid-
lvl clouds is currently tracking through Ohio, associated with a
passing shortwave trough. SCT/FEW at 6kft to 8kft is expected
for a few sites. A wind shift from southwest to west/northwest
is expected the progression of the shortwave.

.Outlook...
VFR conditions are expected to continue through Thursday night
under high pressure. The next chance for restrictions comes late
Friday into early Saturday with passing low pressure.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Cermak/Shallenberger
NEAR TERM...Shallenberger/88
SHORT TERM...Cermak/Shallenberger
LONG TERM...Cermak
AVIATION...Hefferan