261
FXUS65 KPUB 301733
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1133 AM MDT Tue Apr 30 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Critical fire weather conditions for the San Luis Valley today.

- Critical fire weather conditions possible for the San Luis Valley
  and portions of the Plains Wednesday, with critical fire weather
  conditions likely continuing across the SLV through the rest of
  the work week.

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms possible Wednesday
  with the potential for severe storms across the far southeast Plains.

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms possible through the
  rest of the work week into the early weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 346 AM MDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Currently...Quick-moving shortwave is currently crossing MT and WY,
producing some enhanced cloud cover and pcpn across the northwestern
quad of CO. Satellite imagery early this morning shows a few clouds
across southern CO, with the greatest cloud cover over the central
mts. A few higher elevations sites were reporting winds gusting up
to 30-40 mph at times, but otherwise much of the region reported
light diurnal winds. Temps as of 3 AM had dropped into the 30s to
the mid 40s for the high valleys, and 40s to around 50F for the
plains.

Today...As the upper shortwave to the north continues pushing east
into the Dakotas today, pcpn chances are expected to remain somewhat
restricted to the northern half of CO. There is an isolated shot for
some showers across the central mts, especially the higher
elevations of Lake County, so kept isolated pops there through the
morning even though expected snow amounts there will be minimal.
Elsewhere, westerly winds are forecast to increase and get gusty at
times starting by late morning and continuing through the afternoon,
especially for those wind-prone areas due to gap flow. Gusts up to
30-35 mph at times will be possible, especially along Highway 50
from Canon to Pueblo, and in the vicinity of the Air Force Academy.
Further south, across the San Luis Valley, persistent dry conditions
will combine with afternoon gusty winds to once again produce
critical fire weather conditions this afternoon until around 7 PM.
Plan on high temps today in the 60s to around 70F for the high
valleys, and lower 70s to lower 80s for the plains. These forecast
temps are around 10 degrees above normal for this time of year.

Tonight...As the shortwave to the north exits the region, it will
drop a weak cold front south across eastern CO, which will push
south of the Palmer Divide this evening. Surface winds will shift
around to an easterly direction through the evening for the plains,
as well as an outside chance of a shower or two developing along the
Palmer in eastern El Paso County. Low confidence in this outcome, so
just placed some silent pops there, but NAM/NAMNest and even the GFS
hint at the possibility. Otherwise, look for an increase in cloud
cover along the Continental Divide overnight ahead of a stronger low
pressure system to the north approaching. Overnight low temps will
cool into the 30s to around 40F for the high valleys, and 40s for
the plains. Moore

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 346 AM MDT Tue Apr 30 2024

A fairly active westerly flow pattern across the region for the
Wednesday through Saturday timeframe, as several embedded short
waves remain progged to translate through the faster flow across the
Pacific NW through the Northern Rockies and into the Upper Midwest.

Increasing southwest flow aloft across the Central Rockies ahead of
the first wave on Wednesday will develop a pre-frontal trough across
the southeast Plains through the morning, with easterly winds
advecting low level moisture into the far southeast plains through
the morning and into the early afternoon, as breezy westerly
downslope west of the trough helps to mix out the low level moisture
across the I-25 Corridor. Models differ on how fast the trough
pushes east and mixes out the low level moisture across the plains
through the afternoon, with some higher res data indicating CAPE of
1000-1500 j/kg across the far southeast plains Wednesday afternoon
and early evening, along with enough shear to support chances of
severe storms. The latest SPC SWODY2 does indicate a marginal chance
pushing into the far southeast Colorado Plains, with better chances
of severe storms further east into Kansas. Otherwise, warm and
breezy west to southwest flow ahead of the passing shortwave will
bring critical fire weather conditions to the San Luis Valley once
again on Wednesday, as well as portions of the plains, however, will
keep current Fire Weather Watches in tact for Wednesday afternoon
and early evening. Increasing mid level moisture and lift ahead of said
short wave will bring isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to
the Central Mtns through Pikes Peak Region and northern portions of the
plains Wednesday afternoon, with the passing systems cold front Wednesday
evening bringing chances of showers and storms across the Plains through
the late evening, with moisture pooling behind the front, leading to some
stratus development overnight and into early Thursday morning, especially
in the Pikes Peak region and the lower eastern slopes of the southeast
Mtns.

For Thursday, steep mid level lapse rates and easterly low level upslope
flow will help develop isolated to scattered high based showers and storms
across the higher terrain, with best coverage expected across the Pikes
Peak region, while breezy westerly flow aloft develops critical fire weather
conditions across the San Luis Valley once again Thursday afternoon.

The next embedded short wave translates across the Northern Rockies Friday
into early Saturday, with chances of showers and storms ahead of the wave
Friday afternoon and evening, as the systems cold front pushes across the
plains Friday night. Low level upslope behind this front on Saturday will
again help to develop a few showers and storms across the eastern mtns and
immediate adjacent plains Saturday afternoon.

Sunday looks to be warm and dry across the region, with upper level ridging
building in the Rockies ahead of more Eastern Pacific energy moving into the
West Coast. However, latest models indicating differences on timing and
location of this next system moving across the region for next Monday and
beyond.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1128 AM MDT Tue Apr 30 2024

VFR at all taf sites the next 24 hrs. Weak boundary from plains
convection has temporarily turned winds easterly at KCOS, but
expect flow to turn w-sw and become gusty this afternoon and
evening. At KPUB and KALS, w-sw winds will gusts 20-25 kts this
afternoon, then diminish this evening.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for COZ224.
Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
evening for COZ224-232-233-237.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...PETERSEN