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000
FXUS65 KPUB 120942
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
342 AM MDT Fri Apr 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures are expected today, with critical
  fire weather conditions across portions of the area.

- Critical fire weather conditions will continue to be a threat
  for portions of the area Saturday through Wednesday.

- Snow returns to the mountains Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 338 AM MDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Currently..

Water vapor imagery depicts dry air overhead with ridging building
in over the region. Winds at the surface are light and following
normal drainage patterns. Temperatures are near normal for most
locations. Skies are clear.

Today and Tonight..

Today will be very warm and dry for our plains, with temperatures
around 10 degrees above normal for most locations. Warmest
temperatures look to be in the low 80s for the Lower Arkansas River
Valley, with mid to upper 70s elsewhere on our plains, and upper 60s
for our mountain valleys. Relative humidity values will be very low,
in the single digits and low teens this afternoon and into this
evening. Southerly winds will be breezy for most, and strong enough
to warrant a Red Flag Warning across the San Luis Valley, along with
Las Animas and Baca Counties as well. Please avoid activities that
could start a wildfire today!

For the high country, shortwave energy embedded in the ridge will
bring a quick shot of rain and snow chances to the Continental
Divide this afternoon and this evening, though little to no new snow
accumulation is expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 338 AM MDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Saturday and Sunday...Models continue to indicate that the Pacific
upper low will move onshore across central CA on Sat, then push into
the Great Basin and Four Corners regions on Sun. This path will
produce dry conditions along with high temps both days anywhere from
10 to 20 degrees above normal. In addition, gusty west-southwest
winds on Sat, shifting to a more southerly direction on Sun, will
combine with the dry and hot conditions to produce heightened fire
danger both days. A Fire Weather Watch is in place already for
portions of the area on Sat, and another highlight will likely need
to be hoisted for Sun. Look for high temps both days in the mid 60s
to around 70F for the high valleys, and upper 70s to upper 80s for
the plains.

Monday...Latest model runs are still showing a very fast progression
of the upper low across the area on Mon, starting on over southern
UT and northern AZ Mon morning, and reaching western KS overnight
into early Tue morning. However, the track of the low is now
forecast to be slightly further north, across the southern half of
CO, as compared to northern NM which was the solution yesterday.
Given such a rapid movement, it will certainly be unsettled with
snow returning to the mts by late morning, and shower activity with
isolated thunderstorms across the plains during the late afternoon
and early evening. New snow amounts will range from 4 to 7 inches
for the central mts, and up to 2 inches across the peaks of the
remaining higher terrain. Forecast wind, temp and RH grids still
point to a very windy, dry and warm day for much of the plains, so
fire weather highlights may be needed Mon as well. Stay tuned.
Maximum temps will be in the 50s for the high valleys, and upper 60s
to around 80F for the plains.

Tuesday and Wednesday...As the one low pressure system swiftly
pushes east out of the area, another larger low pressure system
drops down out of the Pacific NW and takes a more northerly track.
Much of the associated precipitation is expected across the northern
half of CO, but some isolated to low end scattered shower activity
is probable across the central mts and Pikes Peak region. The main
effect from this northern system will be the stronger westerly flow
aloft that will settle in across the forecast area. Continued dry
conditions coupled with these stronger winds will likely just
continue the fire weather threat for portions of the plains both
days. A cold front will finally push south across the Palmer Divide
Wed afternoon, and timing of this front will dictate how Wed will
pan out. Look for highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s for the high
valleys, and mid 60s to near 80F for the plains.

Thursday...Cold front the previous day will usher in much cooler
temps as well as lingering isolated shower activity. Plan on highs
in the mid 50s to mid 60s for most locations. Moore

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 338 AM MDT Fri Apr 12 2024

VFR conditions are expected at KCOS, KPUB, and KALS for the next 24
hours. Southwesterly winds with gusts up to 25kt develop at KALS by
19Z this afternoon, with lighter and mainly diurnally driven winds
developing over KCOS and KPUB. Mid and upper-level cloud cover
increases after 18Z as well, though no precip is expected near of
the terminals this period.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for
COZ224.
Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
evening for COZ224.
Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday
evening for COZ228>237.
Red Flag Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM MDT this
evening for COZ230-233-237.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EHR
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...EHR