675
FXUS61 KRLX 031530
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1130 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An approaching cold front brings showers and storms this
afternoon into the weekend. Active weather continues into next
week with daily chances for showers and storms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1123 AM Friday...

Satellite and radar imagery show clouds and showers moving
slowly east northeast across the Mid OH valley and portions of
WV late this afternoon. Expect this activity to increase in
intensity and coverage this afternoon and evening. Previous
forecast remains on track.

As of 640 AM Friday...

Freshened up PoPs to account for isolated showers that are
encroaching upon the western fringe of the CWA earlier than
anticipated. No other changes have been made at this time.

As of 220 AM Friday...

Moisture starts to increase this morning as high pressure fades
to the east and a cold front approaches from the west. Warm air,
transported into the area by southwesterly ahead of the front,
should allow temperatures to rise into the 70s to 80s during
the day.

Showers will begin spreading across the area this afternoon,
with scattered thunderstorms also likely to sprout up as
moderate instability develops within the warm and moist
environment. The frontal boundary then loiters to the west while
a shortwave lifts across the region and sustains shower and
storm activity within the CWA overnight.

Precipitable water is expected to rise throughout the day, with
values ranging from 1 to 1.75 inches this afternoon into
tonight. This signals potential for some heavier downpours which
could create localized problems mainly for poor drainage areas;
however, widespread flooding is not anticipated given the
fairly dry conditions leading up to today.

Tonight`s temperatures are expected to be mild, with lows in the
50s to 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1128 AM Friday...

More of the same type of weather is expected Sunday with a stalled
front nearby bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms. Weak flow
aloft and weak shear of only 15-25 kts should mitigate the risk of
severe weather. Localized flooding remains possible, especially in
areas that previously saw heavier downpours over the previous few
days. Expect high temperatures in the lower 80s across the lowlands
and the 70s in the mountains. The air will feel slightly humid
across the lowlands with dew point temperatures ranging from 60-65
degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1129 AM Friday...

The unsettled pattern will continue into the new work week with
chances of scattered showers and thunderstorms on Monday and
Tuesday. Some models are showing the potential for severe weather
Wednesday with 35+ kts of 0-6 km bulk shear and 1,000-2,000 J/kg of
MLCAPE in spots. Confidence is low at this time, but this will be
something to monitor over the coming days. Our region will be
positioned in the warm sector with dew points 65-70 degrees and
PWATs around 1.5 inches, so localized flooding might also be a
concern Wednesday. In addition, we will also have to watch for
the potential of gusty non-thunderstorm winds with low pressure
strengthening over the Great Lakes.

Our region will remain in the warm sector Thursday, and it still
looks very warm and humid with chances of showers and thunderstorms.
Next Friday remains uncertain, but some models are showing a
warm front sinking south of the region with slightly cooler
weather returning.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 640 AM Friday...

Early morning fog will dissipate early in the TAF period, then
showers and thunderstorms that are currently approaching from
the west are expected to spread across the area as a front nears
during the day. Activity should then be sustained into tonight
due to a passing disturbance. VFR ceilings are expected to
gradually descend to low-end VFR as the day progresses and then
further degrade to MVFR/IFR overnight. Periodic restrictions to
visibility will also be possible within any heavier showers or
storms later today and tonight.

5-10kt southwest winds are expected much of the day, followed by
light and variable winds for tonight.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Onset time of precipitation may vary from
the forecast. Sub-VFR conditions will be possible in
showers/storms.




EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
IFR conditions possible in showers/storms at times Saturday into
Sunday, and in stratus and/or fog Saturday/Sunday mornings.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JLB/JMC
NEAR TERM...ARJ/JLB
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...JLB