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000
FXUS61 KRLX 181653
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1253 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry today. Another round of showers and storms Friday with a
cold front. Cooler and drier this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1216 PM Thursday...

Overall, dry today, with high pressure surface and aloft
temporarily in control. Showers ad storms will return early
Friday with the approach of a low and associated cold front.
Winds will pick up towards early Friday with approach of this
system. With the storms, widespread severe is not anticipated,
but depending on timing of front and convective development, an
isolated strong storm cannot be completely ruled out across the
south and east, but overall, the front should be through most
locations by peak heating, thus limiting overall instability and
severe potential.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 305 AM Thursday...

Upper level low pressure transiting the Upper Great Lakes drags a
cold front through the region Friday morning through early
afternoon. Ahead of this feature, expect remnant convection from
overnight activity out to the west charging eastward and weakening.
Even the more bullish models have backed off on the magnitude of
conditional instability available with this feature, with the mean
now down toward 500J/kg effective CAPE. Kinematic fields will be
modestly strong with deep layer shear around 35KT and 0-1km SRH 100-
150m2/s2, so couldn`t completely rule out a stronger storm
persisting from the west despite movement into a less unstable
environment. Actual frontal passage then occurs during the day with
an additional line of relatively weak showers or perhaps a
thunderstorms possible through early Friday afternoon until the
front sweeps east. Rainfall amounts will be relatively light,
perhaps a tenth to a quarter inch basin average with any more
persistent convection yielding perhaps half to one inch of quick
and isolated accumulation.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1230 PM Thursday...

Dry and cooler weather will be the common theme this weekend
behind a cold front, with the coolest day being Sunday where the
lowlands will see temperatures in the mid to upper 50s; 40s and
50s in the mountains. There could be some showers across the
southwestern VA and southern WV mountains Sunday due to some
moisture passing to our south from The GoM.

There remains the possibility for a couple mornings of frost
across the region next week. Cold lows in the 30s will allow
for a more widespread development Monday morning; which could
prompt some frost/freeze headlines across counties with active
growing seasons.

Guidance is still split on what will happen with a front next
week, but some midweek rain or thunderstorms could be possible.
Temperatures look to be near normal to a few degrees below
normal next week, with Tuesday being the warmest day.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 543 AM Thursday...

Some MVFR clouds along the mountains and some patchy fog where
rain fell yesterday will give way to VFR conditions by mid
morning. The VFR conditions should then persist through the
evening hours.

Showers and thunderstorms will move into the area late tonight
from the west.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High, except medium with fog dissipation.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of fog dissipation could vary.




EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
Spotty IFR possible along the mountains on Friday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SL/LTC
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...LTC
AVIATION...RPY