412
FXUS61 KRNK 110645
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
245 AM EDT Sat May 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will pass through the region today bringing another
round of showers during the afternoon and evening. High pressure
builds in behind the front tonight and dry weather will
continue through Monday. The next storm system arrives on
Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 230 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

1) Cold front brings a chance of showers for this afternoon and
evening.

2) Cooler temperatures remain in place.

Mostly clear this morning with weak high pressure in place.
A few mountain upslope clouds remain with weak northwest flow
behind a departing upper wave moving east into the Atlantic.

Generally clear skies through the morning, outside of some
patchy areas of fog expected by daybreak. Clouds increase by
midday in advance of the approaching front dropping southeast
from the Ohio Valley. Best chance for rain will be between 4PM
and 8PM today. The front quickly departs east tonight and will
have gradual clearing, but a few upslope showers will remain
for southeast West Virginia through early Sunday.

Winds gusty again by this afternoon with winds from the west
gusting into the 20mph range at times. Temperatures remain cool
with lows this morning in the mid/low 40s. Highs today
generally in the low to mid 60s in the mountains, low 70s in the
east. Chilly again overnight in the upper/mid 40s

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1245 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is high for drier weather on Sunday.

2) Warmer air should return by Monday with increasing chances of
rain towards Monday night.

Weak high pressure will approach the Mid Atlantic to halt the
upslope mountain rain showers during Saturday night. The wind may
still become breezy on Sunday as an upper level trough heads
offshore. With high pressure passing across the Appalachian
Mountains on Sunday night, low temperatures by Monday morning should
fall into the upper 30s to the upper 40s. The upper level pattern
will flatten and become zonal on Monday to end the somewhat cooler
stretch of weather. A southwest flow at the surface should provide
warmer and moister air from the Gulf of Mexico for Monday afternoon.
However, a low pressure system will enter Kentucky and Tennessee by
Monday night, which should yield increasing chances of showers and
thunderstorms for the southern Blue Ridge and far southwest Virginia.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1245 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is high for unsettled weather during Tuesday and
Wednesday with showers and thunderstorms.

2) Drier air may briefly return by early Thursday, but more showers
and thunderstorms are possible to end the work week.

Unsettled weather will return for Tuesday and Wednesday as a low
pressure system crosses the Appalachian Mountains. Widespread
showers and thunderstorms are anticipated for Tuesday and will
likely carry over through Wednesday. The low pressure system will
exit the Mid Atlantic by Wednesday night, while weak high pressure
could briefly provide drier conditions for Thursday morning. Another
low pressure system should move eastward from the central Plains by
Thursday afternoon. Shower and thunderstorm chances may resume
towards Thursday evening and become more widespread again by Friday
as this low pressure system reaches the Ohio River Valley.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 245 AM EDT Saturday...

VFR across the area this morning and overall prevailing theme
will be VFR. Some patchy fog may develop this morning before
daybreak, particularly LWB and perhaps BCB. Clouds increase by
early afternoon and a few rain showers with an associated front
will cross through this afternoon/evening. Clouds clear tonight
again and VFR is expected to continue.

Winds today from the west, gusting to 20mph range at times.
Should begin to subside after sunset as high pressure builds in.

Extended Aviation Outlook...

Some upslope MVFR clouds will remain at KLWB and KBLF until
Sunday morning. VFR conditions are expected Sunday and Monday
under dry, high pressure.

Precipitation and sub-VFR ceilings and visibilities return to
the region on Tuesday and Wednesday due to a low pressure
system approaching from the central United States.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BMG
NEAR TERM...BMG
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...BMG