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000
FXUS63 KSGF 180520
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1220 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated to locally significant fire weather conditions this
  afternoon, mainly east of Highway 65.

- An isolated strong to severe storm or two northwest of a line
  from Joplin, MO to Warsaw, MO late this evening into early
  tonight. Hail hail is the primary threat.

- Severe thunderstorms possible on Thursday. Large hail to the
  size of golf balls and 60 mph winds are the primary threats.
  Details are still in question, especially how far west the
  threat will extend.

- Frost possible over the eastern Ozarks Saturday night and
  Sunday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 136 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

As mentioned in previous discussions, there is a chance for an
isolated thunderstorm or two over the northwestern CWA (roughly
along and NW of a line from Joplin, MO to Warsaw, MO) late this
evening into early tonight. Elevated instability along a
northward moving warm front on the right edge of the nose of
the LLJ will drive this potential. There are unknowns with how
far east the LLJ goes, how much elevated instability/inhibition
exist, and the result of how much convection we see across the
area. If storms can develop, there is a low end risk for 1"
hail.

The warm front will continue north through the night as a
surface low forms east of the CO Rockies. This should result in
storms N/NW of the CWA late tonight. There remains uncertainty
with the evolution of those storms, but most CAMs keep them N
of the area into Thursday morning. At the same time, the surface
low will move east into the CWA on Thursday, driven by a mid-
level impulse. Storms should develop late morning into early
afternoon along remnant outflow boundaries and the front as it
moves back south as a cold front an interact with a very
unstable environment (MUCAPE perhaps in the 2,000-3,500 J/kg
range), leading to potential for hail up to golf ball size (if
not larger) and damaging winds to 60 mph. The greatest coverage
is expected across the NE/E CWA, with less coverage and greater
uncertainty to the W/SW where a more pronounced EML (increased
CIN) will exist. Still, could see storms form over the W/SW
given the cold front moving in while the surface low moves up
the front combined with any outflow boundaries. The tornado
threat is quite low given poor low level shear.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 136 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Cooler weather is expected Friday through Monday with highs in
the 60s and lows in the 30s to 40s. There is potential for frost
over the cooler valleys of the eastern Ozarks Saturday night and
Sunday night. Highs warm back into the 70s for Tuesday and
Wednesday.

Friday night into Saturday will see a 20-40% chance of rain,
greatest across the southern CWA. Additional chances for
showers and thunderstorms exist Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

For the 06z TAFS, winds should start becoming gusty this morning
out of the south with some veering to the southwest ahead of the
approaching cold front towards midday. Instability will increase
throughout the day with the frontal boundary being the focus for
convection development from around midday through the afternoon
into the early evening at the TAF sites. Generally expecting
around a 3 to 4 hour window of convection as the front pushes
through. Winds should then turn to the northwest and north
behind the front in the afternoon and evening and remain gusty
with some gusts up to 25 kts possible. VFR and some MVFR
potential ahead of the front as low clouds increase during the
day with MVFR and some brief IFR with any convection that
develops and then MVFR behind the front.



&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Titus
LONG TERM...Titus
AVIATION...Lindenberg