Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 171753
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1253 PM CDT Thu May 17 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 225 AM CDT Thu May 17 2018

Upper energy underneath a ridge has aided in scattered convection
from late yesterday afternoon during the peak heating with outflow
generating additional convection which is continuing overnight
across mainly from south central Missouri towards Springfield and
into west central Missouri. Would expect this convection to wane
during the later portions of the overnight.

Water vapor imagery shows the embedded shortwave nicely over
northeast Kansas and we should see convection redevelop with more
widespread coverage across the eastern half of the CWA by mid to
late morning. This should continue through the afternoon and early
evening as the shortwave slowly tracks southeast across the area.
Enough instability for some stronger storms like yesterday, but
deep shear remains on the weak side so we are not expecting any
widespread strong storms. Similar to yesterday, pea to nickel
hail and wind gusts up to 40 mph will be the most common with the
stronger storms, along with heavy rain.

Afternoon highs will likely be the warmest in the west where
storm chances will be the lowest with readings in the low 80s.
Further east, highs in the mid to upper 70s are expected.

Thunderstorm chances will diminish after sunset, but probably
won`t completely go away until the overnight hours again like we
currently have until the shortwave passes to the east. The best
chances in the evening and overnight will be in south central
Missouri.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 225 AM CDT Thu May 17 2018

The main shortwave energy will pass to the east by Friday with
some increasing heights aloft in the wake of the shortwave. There
will be some afternoon instability so can`t completely rule out
convection, but coverage should be much less than today.

The ridge axis will begin to shift across the area on Saturday and
to the east of us by Saturday night. The ECMWF wants to bring a
cold front through the area on Sunday while the GFS keeps this
feature to the west. Can`t rule out convection on a daily basis,
however confidence in any one guidance with this pattern is low at
this time. Better chances of convection look to be in the
Tuesday-Wednesday time frame with weak shortwave energy embedded
within the flow moving across the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Thu May 17 2018

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Scattered thunderstorms will be
possible,especially at KJLN and KBBG as upper level disturbances
move through the region. MVFR/IFR conditions will be possible
with heavier showers. Some fog, particularly over far southern MO,
will be possible overnight 09z-14z with areas of ifr and mvfr
visibility and low/shallow stratus ceilings.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...DSA



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