Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 201911

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
Issued by National Weather Service ST LOUIS MO
211 PM CDT Tue Mar 20 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 126 PM CDT Tue Mar 20 2018

A northwest flow shortwave will bring more cloudiness into the
area this evening with a few light showers or sprinkles possible
mainly across central MO. It appears that the precipitation will
dissipate as it gets further south into our area. Colder, below
normal low temperatures can be expected tonight with lows near the
freezing mark. The sky will clear out on Wednesday as a surface
ridge shifts eastward through MO. Plenty of solar insolation
during the afternoon will lead to warmer high temperatures.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 126 PM CDT Tue Mar 20 2018

The warming trend will continue as upper level heights rise with
the approach of an upper level ridge, plus the surface winds will
become southerly by Thursday as the surface ridge shifts east of
the region. Strong low-mid level warm air advection over a surface
warm front will generate showers on Thursday and Thursday night,
but it appears that most of this activity will be north and east
of our forecast area. Showers should eventually move into parts of
our area Friday and Friday night as low level moisture increases
ahead of an approaching surface low over the central Plains,
while upper level divergence increases ahead of an approaching
shortwave. Showers should shift east of the forecast area by
Saturday evening as the surface low shifts further east-southeast
into TN. Only a brief dry period is expected as showers will
spread eastward into the area already on Sunday or Sunday night as
low level moisture moves back into the area ahead of a developing
low pressure system in the lee of the Rockies. The chance of
showers and a few storms will continue for the rest of the
forecast period as a cold front develops and moves only slowly
southeastward through the region Monday and Tuesday. The ECMWF
model is a little slower with the progression of this front
compared to the operational GFS model.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1138 AM CDT Tue Mar 20 2018

Deep surface low has moved eastward into the TN Valley region
with an elongated north to south surface ridge over the Plains.
Much of the low level cloudiness was scattering out late this
morning with BBG finally improving to VFR conditions. Northwest
flow upper level disturbances will bring more low-mid level
cloudiness southeastward into the taf sites later this afternoon
and this evening, but it appears that it will remain VFR, and it
also appears that any measurable rain that could produce
visibility reductions will likely remain north of the taf sites.
Gusty northwest surface winds will weaken this evening as the
surface pressure gradient relaxes.




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