Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 262306
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
606 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Some residual minor flooding will continue into Wednesday from
  yesterdays rainfall.

- A hard freeze is expected tonight across most of the area and
  a freeze warning will be issued.

- Warming up again late in the week into early next week with
  well above normal temperatures this weekend into Monday.

- There is the potential for some active weather early next
  week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 157 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

Synoptic overview and current conditions: Upper level low which
was over eastern Kansas yesterday and bringing the rainfall to
the area has lifted northeast into the Great Lakes. We still
have northwesterly flow aloft which continues to bring the
colder air mass into the region. Extensive low level cloud cover
continues across the area, but the clearing line was beginning
to edge into eastern Kansas. As a result of the extensive cloud
cover and cold air advection, temperatures have not budged much
today and remain in the mid 30s to around 40 in the far
southeast part of the CWA.

Tonight: Surface high pressure will move overhead tonight and we
should start to see some clearing take place in the west as
early as this afternoon and then during the evening further
south and east. Temperatures should drop into the low to mid 30s
for the northwest half of the CWA and the mid 20s to around 30
for the southeast half. We are going with a freeze warning for
locations where we are expecting temperatures to dip at or below
28 degrees tonight which is roughly north of a Cassville to
Salem line.

Wednesday: The upper trough position and surface high will be
overhead on Wednesday. The difference will be sunshine expected
across the area. Despite the cold beginning to the day, we
should get back into the mid to upper 50s for highs.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 157 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

Wednesday night: The upper trough axis will shift to the east of
the area, however surface ridge will remain positioned over the
region. We should see temperatures drop to the upper 20s to low
30s across the area, with some locations in the eastern Ozarks
possibly dipping into the low to mid 20s in low lying areas.

Warming trend through the remainder of the week into early next
week: Behind the upper trough axis, ridging will build into the
area on Thursday and we should also start to see some low level
warm advection with the surface high shifting to the southeast.
Temperatures on Thursday should bump back into the mid 60s and
into the 70s for Friday through Monday. Some 80s will be
possible Sunday and Monday.

Active period late in the weekend into early next week: An upper
level storm system will begin to push into southern California
on Saturday while a frontal boundary will sag south into the
area and become nearly stationary from west to east. Some
initial precipitation will be possible near the front on Sunday.
Precipitation chances will increase Sunday night into Monday
night as upper energy spreads northeast into the area. CIPS/CSU
severe weather analogs/forecast do bring some severe weather
chances into the region on day 7 which would be Monday April
1st, so we`ll need to keep an eye on this system as we get
closer and models begin to resolve differences better.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 605 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

High confidence in VFR conditions prevailing through the TAF
period. Low to mid level clouds slowly dissipate through this
evening from west to east, with ceilings increasing. Winds light
around 5 to 10 knots out of the west-northwest this evening,
becoming 5 knots or less overnight into Wednesday morning out
of the north- northeast.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 249 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

Record Precipitation:

March 25:
KVIH: 1.95/1904 - BROKEN: 2.29
KUNO: 1.40/2010 - BROKEN: 2.76


Record High Temperatures:

March 30:
KUNO: 82/1963
KVIH: 80/1967

April 1:
KUNO: 86/2012


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

April 1:
KSGF: 62/1946

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 10 AM CDT Wednesday for KSZ073-097-
     101.
MO...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 10 AM CDT Wednesday for MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>083-088>096-101>103.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Perez
CLIMATE...Camden


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