Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 191123

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
623 AM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 145 AM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

A vigorous upper low will track east across southern Missouri
today bringing widespread showers and some thunderstorms.
Convection across Oklahoma and southern Kansas will spread into
southeastern Kansas and western Missouri during the predawn hours
into this Monday morning. Deep moisture advection along with
strong synoptic scale lift in response to the negative tilt nature
of this system and resultant upper level divergence will support
widespread coverage of showers. Steep 500 MB height falls and
cooling aloft will aid in the destabilization of the lower
atmosphere. Most unstable CAPE of around 500 to near 1000 J/KG
may develop northward into southwestern Missouri and southeastern
Kansas this morning.

All of these factors could result in some robust deep convection
and the possibility of strong to marginally severe storms this
morning. Large hail will be the primary risk if stronger storms

Otherwise expect a band of showers and embedded thunder to spread
across the area this morning as the upper tracks east. The more
significant rainfall will end from the west as the day progresses
but patchy light rain and drizzle will persist into tonight as we
remain in a deep cyclonic flow in the wake of the passing upper

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 145 AM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

Cooler temperatures will settle into the region for Tuesday while
cloud cover persist in the wake of the exiting storm system. Some
patchy light rain or drizzle could linger into Tuesday morning.

Improving weather conditions and warming trend will return as we
head into mid and late week. An upper ridge will build into the
region by late week as low level warm air advection increases.
Will have to monitor for potential rain chances late week into
Saturday within this warm air and moisture advection in
association with a developing warm front.

The next upper level trough will take shape over the western U.S.
While the details remain uncertain it appears a cold front will
drop through the area later Saturday or Sunday bringing another
chance of rain.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 533 AM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

Pilots can expect poor flight conditions at area terminals through
tonight and likely into Tuesday morning. IFR to MVFR conditions in
low ceilings and lower visibility in precipitation and fog will
prevail across the area. Gusty southeasterly winds at the surface
will shift to the northwest this afternoon as surface low pressure
tracks across the region. Low level wind shear will impact the
area this morning ahead of this low pressure system.




LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Foster is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.