Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 150436

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1136 PM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018

...06z Aviation Forecast Update...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 144 PM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018

Fire weather is the main concern this afternoon and again

For the rest of the afternoon, a sfc high center has moved
south of the cwfa while low pressure was beginning to move into
the lee side of the central Rockies/eastern Colorado and a w-e
oriented sfc front extended form Colorado to the Great Lakes. A
little squeeze in the pressure gradient has allowed west to
southwest winds to pick up. The very low humidity and increased
wind has increased the fire danger, especially where winds are (or
are expected to be) stronger this afternoon from southeast Kansas
into parts of west central and southwest MO. We have a few
counties in a Red Flag Warning in our western cwfa and have no
intention of making any changes.

South winds will continue tonight with mild temperatures and poor
humidity recovery. This will set the stage for warmer temperatures
and gusty south winds Thursday as low pressure over the western
Plains deepens. There will be some modest dew point/moisture
return, but we will still have low RH and gusty winds to elevate
the fire danger. Highs will be on the order of ten degrees (F)
warmer versus today.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 144 PM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018

The main concern will be thunderstorm chances Thursday night and
early Friday as a warm front lifts north through the area and
then again Fri afternoon/evening as a dry line moves through with
a weakening cap aloft.

Thursday Night-Friday Morning: A strong vertically stacked low
will move ene from Colorado to south central Nebraska Fri morning.
A warm front will lift through through the area with elevated
showers isolated thunderstorms possible ahead of the warm front.
Progged soundings in the warm sector in the wake of the front are
capped, so there looks to be a bit of break in the precip,
especially for the western cwfa. Not looking for much in the way
of overall precip amounts with only modified Gulf moisture

Friday Afternoon-Evening: A dry punch of air will move in from
the west as the sfc low continues to move east. A dry line will
move west to east through our area mainly in the afternoon-early
evening. The GFS seems to be more bullish with a narrow corridor
of instability ahead of the dry line with mid 50s dew points and
mlcape on the order of 600-800 j/kg over southern MO after the cap
erodes with colder aloft. Will need to monitor forecast trends
with respect to moisture return/instability. Shear does support
supercells if robust storms can develop. Assuming somewhat limited
moisture return, the main concern would likely be hail. Other
guidance is not as strong with instability.

We may also need to monitor fire weather FRiday for the western cwfa
as drier air moves in with gusty winds. This will be especially true
where rain is sparse.

Saturday-Saturday night: Weak high pressure should keep the
weather quiet.

Sunday-Monday: A fast moving shortwave will move from the
central/southern Rockies into the mid MS Vly region by midday
Monday. This will bring the next chance of rain Sunday/Monday.

Tuesday-Wednesday: There is fairly good agreement that a
slower/higher amplitude pattern may evolve during this time with
quiet general weather.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1129 PM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018

VFR will continue tonight and Thursday through Thursday evening.
The only aviation concerns for pilots will be some non convective
low level wind shear off the surface tonight due to a low level
jet aroung 2K feet. Also gusty south-southwest winds will return
late Thursday morning through Thursday afternoon up to 25 knots.




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