Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 180726
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
226 AM CDT Wed Apr 18 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 226 AM CDT Wed Apr 18 2018

Strong surface low was located over east central Kansas early this
morning with very gusty west to northwest winds directly behind
the cold front. Gusts of around 40 kts have been reported at
during the past hour or so. The surface low will continue to track
east the remainder of the night to near COU by 12z and the frontal
boundary extending south of the low along US65. The front should
push east and out of CWA by 15z. Winds will be quite gusty today
behind the front, especially closer to the low where the isobars
will be tightly packed, which would be over our northern CWA. We
have loaded winds with CONSMOS today and bumped up several kts
from that and will likely see sustained winds of 20 to 30 mph and
gusts of 30 to 40 mph. Day shift will need to monitor for wind
advisory potential, but at this point it looks like we might fall
short over most locations and will hold off.

Also, much drier air will move in behind the front with humidity
levels dropping into the 30s during the afternoon. Our EHWO brings
fire weather levels into the elevated category, or still below red
flag conditions so will also hold off on any fire weather
products, but will mention the elevated conditions in the morning
HWO.

Cooler air will move in behind the front with cold air advection,
so temperatures will not be nearly as warm as yesterday and in
some cases will probably have highs during the morning.

The colder air will continue to push into the area tonight and
will see most locations in that low to mid 30s range which would
be in the range for frost development. Winds might stay up enough
for that to occur, so will hold off and let the day shift analyze
that further for any frost advisory potential.



.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 226 AM CDT Wed Apr 18 2018

Another frost potential night would be on Thursday night but with
the center of the ridge axis up in Iowa, winds still might be a
bit strong for frost development, but the best potential would be
over the eastern Ozarks where the cooler temperatures will reside.

The next low pressure system will arrive by late Saturday as a
closed low moves into the central and southern plains and
precipitation chances spread into the western portion of the CWA
and eventually across the remainder of the CWA Saturday night into
Sunday. Precipitation should then end by Sunday evening as the low
pulls into the Tennessee valley.

Models begin to diverge a bit by early next week with the GFS
showing a sharper shortwave axis moving in from the northwest
Tuesday night, while the ECMWF keeps the main energy closer to the
closed low over the Great Lakes.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1150 PM CDT Tue Apr 17 2018

Surface low pressure is currently west of the area late this
evening. The low will track east through towards and through the
area tonight and tomorrow. Gusty south to southwesterly winds will
occur tonight, becoming more westerly tomorrow morning before
becoming northwesterly Wednesday afternoon and evening. Low level
wind shear will be a concern tonight.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Wise



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