Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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981
FXUS63 KSGF 190452
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1152 PM CDT Wed Apr 18 2018

...Update to Aviation for 6Z TAFs...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 136 PM CDT Wed Apr 18 2018

Winds will diminish tonight as surface low pressure moves away
from the region. We will see an upper level vorticity lobe drop
into northern Missouri which should keep cloud cover fairly
abundant across central Missouri. We are not looking at any
precipitation potential.

The main concern overnight will be frost potential across
southeastern Kansas and western Missouri. This will be the area
where the least amount of cloud cover is expected and winds will
become lightest. Confidence is high enough in frost that we have
issued a Frost Advisory.

Surface high pressure will then build east through the Corn Belt
on Thursday. We are therefore looking at a quiet day with clouds
decreasing across central Missouri. Temperatures will be below
normal with north winds and a weak cold air advection pattern in
place. Highs are expected to range from the middle to upper 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 136 PM CDT Wed Apr 18 2018

A surface ridge axis will slide southeast across the Ozarks
Thursday night and set the stage for what will likely be a frosty
night. A Frost Advisory will likely be needed for a larger portion
of the area.

Friday then looks quiet before a closed upper level low slowly
moves across the Red River Valley and Arklatex this weekend. We
are still looking at a shield of rain spreading into southern
Missouri on the northern flank of this system. Precipitation
chances across central Missouri remain a bit more questionable and
will likely depend on the ultimate track of the low.

Early next week then looks quiet with the potential for a short
wave trough and associated cold front diving southeast across the
area around midweek. We kept PoPs fairly low at this point given
low confidence in track and timing. Temperatures this weekend and
early next week should remain slightly below normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1150 PM CDT Wed Apr 18 2018

Surface high pressure will slide south towards the area tonight
and tomorrow. Winds will be out of the north to northwest tonight
into the day on Thursday, then will start to become east to
northeasterly by Thursday evening.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT Thursday for MOZ055-066>068-
     077>079-088-089-093-094-101-102.

KS...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT Thursday for KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Wise



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