Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 191758

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1258 PM CDT Sat May 19 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 251 AM CDT Sat May 19 2018

A large area of rain and thunderstorms was ongoing in Kansas
early this morning. This was occuring on the nose of a 45kt llj
and aided by a reservoir of 3000MU capes in Oklahoma. Until the
llj veers later this morning, most of this activity will likely
skirt the far northwest corner of the CWA. Other very isolated
showers were beginning to develop across the area and this will
likely continue this morning.

Much like the last few nights, fog has developed over the eastern
ozarks with some localized dense fog across the Rolla area, this
will persist through sunrise before dissipating.

A somewhat messy synoptic situation was unfolding across the
Central Plains with a stationary boundary from Central Arkansas
stretching west into North Central Oklahoma and Northwest Texas
where it meets up with a low pressure and dryline across West
Texas. Given all the precip in Kansas, the true cold front is
likely across the northwest part of the state extending into
Nebraska with several outflow boundaries in Kansas. Several
shortwaves were moving through the developing southwest flow and
will create a messy situation today/tonight given the boundaries
and an increasingly unstable airmass.

For today, expect the stationary boundary to return north through
the area as a warm front this morning into early afternoon. The
airmass will become very unstable along and south of the front by
mid day with temps reaching the low to mid 80s and dewpoints
rising into the upper 60s. ML capes will reach 3000j/kg with about
30kts of effective bulk shear. The RAP and NAM both show CIN
decreasing to near zero along the warm front from 18-21Z across
the northeast 1/2 to 1/3 of the area. A weak wave will also be
moving into the area during this time. IF a thunderstorm develops
along that boundary (or any other boundaries from KS morning
convection), then it would have a high chance of becoming severe
given the instability and shear. Low and mid level lapse rates
will be quite steep therefore large hail and damaging winds would
be the main threats. Again this is conditional on if storms
develop. A few of the 00Z CAMS and the latest 06Z NAMnest do show
isolated storms developing across the area today. This will
definently need to be monitored as we head through the morning
hours. Outside of thunderstorms, it will be very warm today with
temps reaching 90 in a few locations. See climate section for

Other showers and storms will likely develop by afternoon and
evening along the synoptic boundaries from Kansas into Oklahoma.
Models struggle to decide on the evolution of this activity with
CAMS showing a wide range of possibilities. It does looks like the
bulk of the storms could affect our northwestern CWA anywhere from
this evening into the overnight hours. Instability and wind shear
would be favorable for severe storms. Storm evolution and
resultant pop forecasts for today/tonight will likely need further
adjustment once convective evolution/placement becomes more

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 251 AM CDT Sat May 19 2018

Depending on how worked over the atmosphere is from Saturday night
storms, additional showers and storms could occur on Sunday since
a front will stall across the area. If enough instability develops
then a severe threat could exist. Currently the best chances of
this is in the northeast CWA closer to better upper level support.

Next week looks warm and unsettled with daily rain/storm chances
given the mid level setup. Monday has the least rain chances with
increasing chances Tuesday through the end of the week. Mainly
looks like a afternoon and evening type of setup that we would
experience during the summer, not May... High temps will likely
reach the mid to upper 80s next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Sat May 19 2018

Convection ongoing ahead of a warm front currently situated along
the MO-AR border into northeast OK. Isolated to widely scattered
convection will occur across the area just ahead of the front this

Convection will once again be possible during the overnight
hours...but will be widely scattered in nature once again.
Conditions will be VFR outside of convective areas to MFVR for
ceilings and visibilities within the stronger storms.


Issued at 251 AM CDT Sat May 19 2018

Record Highs for Today May 19 2018

JLN 91/1987 and 2006
SGF 91/1987 and 1968
VIH 92/1996
UNO 91/1987




SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
CLIMATE...Burchfield is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.