Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FGUS73 KSGF 011928
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MOC097-105-119-145-153-161-169-203-209-KSC021-151200-

Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
125 PM CST Thu Mar 1 2018

...2018 Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook Number 2...

This updated Spring Flood Outlook is for the NWS Springfield
Hydrologic Service Area (HSA) and includes river forecast
points located on the following rivers... James, Jacks Fork,
North Fork White, Spring, Elk, Shoal Creek, Marmaton, Little
Osage, Osage, Sac, Roubidoux, Big Piney, and Gasconade.

...There will now be a near to above normal chance for river
flooding at NWS Springfield River Forecast Points this Spring...

Soil moisture and streamflows increased significantly across
the region due to prolonged heavy rainfall in late February.
The heavy rainfall also led to minor and moderate flooding
on many of the rivers listed above.

Drought conditions have improved significantly over the past
two weeks, with all areas classified as D0, or abnormally dry.
In mid February, most locations were in moderate to severe drought.

Discussions for river forecast points within larger river systems
across the Springfield HSA are included below...

White River Basin, including the James, Jacks Fork and North Fork
White Rivers...

Precipitation accumulations over the past 90 days have shifted from
below normal to above normal. Soil moisture content and streamflow
conditions are currently above normal.

Reservoirs along the upper White River are currently occupying
between 4 to 10 percent of their flood pools, and have 90% or more
of their flood pools available for runoff storage in subsequent
heavy rainfall events. This includes Beaver, Table Rock, Norfork,
and Bull Shoals lakes.

The 8-14 Day Outlook, covering early to mid March, and the 30-Day
Outlook for March, issued by the NWS Climate Prediction Center(CPC)
show above normal chances for above normal precipitation over this
region.

The 90-Day Outlook for March through May indicates equal chances
of above, below or normal precipitation.

Based on existing soil moisture, streamflows, and rainfall outlooks,
an above average river flood potential is expected over the rivers
within the upper White Basin.

Spring River Basin, including Shoal Creek, Elk and Spring Rivers...

Near to above normal precipitation has occurred over the past 90 days.
Soil moisture content and streamflow conditions are above normal.

The 8-14 Day Outlook issued by CPC shows above normal chances for
above normal precipitation over the region.

The 30-Day Outlook and 90-Day Outlook indicate equal chances of
above, below or normal precipitation.

The table below contains output for southwest Missouri and
southeast Kansas forecast points where the Ensemble Streamflow
Prediction Model indicated a greater than 10% chance of minor
flooding.  These are not extreme conditions and do not reflect an
above-normal potential for flooding.

Fcst. Point   % Probability   % Probability      % Probability
Station   Minor Flooding  Moderate Flooding   Major Flooding
ID
Spring R.-Carthage  42                 16           Not Expected
Shoak Ck.- Joplin   22                  9                2
Elk R.- Tiff City   29                 17                2
Spring R.   - Waco  42            Not Expected      Not Expected
   -Baxter Springs  48                 12                4

Based on existing soil moisture, streamflows, and rainfall outlooks,
the potential for river flooding in the Spring River Basin is near
normal this Spring.

Osage River Tributaries, including the Marmaton, Little Osage,
and Sac Rivers.

Near normal precipitation has occurred over the past 90 days. Soil
moisture content and streamflow conditions are also near normal.

Reservoirs in the Osage River Basin currently have at or near 100%
of the flood pool available for storage of runoff from heavy
rainfall events. This includes Stockton, Pomme de Terre, Truman and
Lake of the Ozarks.

The 8-14 Day Outlook issued by CPC shows above normal chances for
above normal precipitation over the region.

The 30-Day Outlook and 90-Day Outlook show equal chances for above,
below and normal precipitation.

River flood risk this Spring across the Osage River tributaries
will be near normal.

Missouri River Tributaries including the Roubidoux, Big Piney,
and Gasconade Rivers...

Above normal precipitation has occurred over the past 90 days. Soil
moisture content and streamflow conditions are above to much above
normal.

The 8-14 Day Outlook issued by CPC shows above normal chances for
above normal precipitation over the region.

The 30-Day Outlook and 90-Day Outlook also show above normal
chances of above normal precipitation.

River flood risk this Spring across these Missouri River tributaries
will be near to above normal.

Probabilities of exceedance for minor, moderate and major flooding
at select river forecast points are included below.

In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.

CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.

HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.

When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.


...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...
                    Valid Period:  03/03/2018  - 06/01/2018

                                       :    Current and Historical
                                       :     Chances of Exceeding
                                       :       Flood Categories
                                       :      as a Percentage (%)
                      Categorical      :
                   Flood Stages (ft)   :   Minor    Moderate   Major
Location           Minor   Mod   Major :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:Little Osage River
Fulton              22.0   25.0   30.0 :  76   77   68   66    5    5
Horton              41.0   45.0   50.0 :  90   89   39   44   <5   <5
:Marmaton River
Fort Scott          38.0   42.0   43.0 :  28   27   10   10    9    8
Nevada              20.0   26.0   31.0 :  73   71   30   32   11    8
:Osage River
Schell City         30.0   35.0   45.0 :  48   64    6    8   <5   <5
:Sac River
Caplinger Mills     16.0   19.0   28.0 :  50   62   44   45    7    8
:Gasconade River
Hazelgreen          21.0   26.0   30.0 :  18   15   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Roubidoux Creek
Waynesville          7.0   14.0   20.0 :  56   58   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Big Piney
Fort Leonard Wood    8.0   15.0   23.0 :  64   64   23   14   <5   <5
:Gasconade River
Jerome              15.0   25.0   30.0 :  47   40    6   <5   <5   <5
:Spring River
Carthage            10.0   14.0   20.0 :  35   25   12   <5   <5   <5
Waco                19.0   30.0   33.0 :  34   33   <5   <5   <5   <5
Baxter Springs      14.0   22.0   30.0 :  29   27    9    9   <5   <5
:Shoal Creek
Joplin              11.5   16.0   18.0 :  19   14    6    5   <5   <5
:Elk River
Tiff City           15.0   20.0   25.0 :  24   23    7    7   <5   <5

Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet

In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.

...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...

                               Chance of Exceeding Stages
                                  at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 03/03/2018  - 06/01/2018
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Little Osage River
Fulton                8.0   13.8   22.7   26.4   28.4   29.6   30.3
Horton               36.5   40.9   42.9   44.0   45.8   47.4   48.7
:Marmaton River
Fort Scott           13.1   17.5   32.0   33.8   38.2   42.2   44.8
Nevada               11.4   17.6   19.8   23.9   28.6   31.1   36.8
:Osage River
Schell City          10.2   16.6   21.9   28.6   32.7   34.1   36.1
:Sac River
Caplinger Mills       8.6   10.9   14.1   16.0   24.2   27.4   28.8
:Gasconade River
Hazelgreen            6.5    7.0    8.7   13.5   19.2   22.9   24.0
:Roubidoux Creek
Waynesville           4.4    4.7    5.4    7.4    9.6   11.7   13.0
:Big Piney
Fort Leonard Wood     4.6    5.0    5.9   10.2   14.7   17.5   19.2
:Gasconade River
Jerome                6.9    8.1    9.8   14.6   19.6   23.6   25.8
:Spring River
Carthage              5.5    5.5    5.7    8.2   11.3   14.6   16.5
Waco                  9.3    9.3   11.6   15.3   21.2   25.1   26.5
Baxter Springs        7.5    7.5    8.0   11.4   14.6   22.0   24.6
:Shoal Creek
Joplin                5.5    5.6    6.3    8.4   10.0   14.2   17.0
:Elk River
Tiff City             7.9    7.9    9.6   12.1   15.0   18.5   21.7

In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the
valid time period.

...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities...

                            Chance of Falling Below Stages
                                 at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 03/03/2018  - 06/01/2018
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Little Osage River
Fulton                4.0    3.8    3.6    3.4    3.3    3.2    3.2
Horton               28.3   27.7   27.4   27.0   26.5   26.2   25.9
:Marmaton River
Fort Scott            8.5    8.1    7.9    7.6    7.3    7.2    7.1
Nevada                3.6    3.3    3.1    2.8    2.6    2.4    2.3
:Osage River
Schell City           4.1    4.1    4.1    4.1    4.1    4.1    4.1
:Sac River
Caplinger Mills       6.8    6.4    5.9    5.6    5.5    5.4    5.4
:Gasconade River
Hazelgreen            3.5    3.3    2.9    2.5    2.2    2.0    1.8
:Roubidoux Creek
Waynesville           3.4    3.4    3.3    3.0    3.0    2.9    2.8
:Big Piney
Fort Leonard Wood     3.0    2.8    2.6    2.2    2.0    1.9    1.7
:Gasconade River
Jerome                3.8    3.6    3.2    2.6    2.4    2.2    2.1

These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part
of the National Weather Service`s Advanced Hydrologic Prediction
Service.

Visit our web site weather.gov/sgf ...under the rivers and lakes tab
and experimental long range risk tab for more weather information.

This will be the last Spring Flood Outlook issued for 2018. The next
Hydrologic Outlook will be issued during the last week of March.

$$
Terry



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