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000
FXUS64 KSHV 251852
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
152 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 116 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

So, in an effort to try and keep all the weather together, the
short-term discussion today will only cover the first 24 hours of
the forecast, look for the meat and potatoes of the discussion to
be in the long-term.

Upper-level ridging will begin to break down tonight, allowing for
shower and thunderstorm chances to begin increasing into the
afternoon hours of Friday. Lows tonight will range in the
upper-60s to low-70s, with highs tomorrow ranging in the upper-70s
to mid-80s.

See y`all in the next paragraph.

/44/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 116 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Trying to avoid writing another novel of a discussion like I did
yesterday, I want to spend most of my effort here focusing in on
what`s changed the last 24 hours. The long and the short of that
answer is thankfully: not much.

The first rounds of showers and thunderstorms are still
anticipated to begin tomorrow, with convection ongoing as early as
8AM for some locations. These storms could be strong, but the
true severe weather threat is anticipated in the afternoon. Not
much has changed with the environment, but it does look like we
may be even more disconnected from the forcing than what was
previously anticipated. In turn, while a severe weather threat
still exists, it appears as if it`s becoming more isolated in
nature, with damaging winds and large hail being the main threats.

A similar setup exists for Sunday, with the main threat here
looking to be Sunday night, and into Sunday morning. The main
threat with this severe weather will also be large hail and
damaging winds, as this line too looks disconnected from the
better forcing mechanisms. However, this line of storms is going
to come into the region much slower, and with nothing of real note
to push it out. In turn, heavy rainfall will be possible with
this event, with 2-3 inches of rain possible into late Monday
morning.

The heavy rainfall is also worth mentioning again, as QPF amounts
through the middle of next week range between 3-6 inches across
the region. Our area is highlighted in multiple ERO`s from the
WPC, with 6+ inches of rain not out of the question under some of
the heavier convection. This would easily result in additional
flooding and flash flooding given ongoing flooding across the
region.

/44/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 650 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

For the 25/12Z TAF period, MVFR/IFR cigs are beginning to affect
some of our East Texas terminals while mostly VFR conditions are
observed elsewhere. Some patchy fog will also be remain possible
through at least daybreak before quickly dispersing. The general
trend today will be for increasing cloud cover at multiple levels
throughout the TAF period. Most sites will eventually return to
low VFR conditions although some brief periods of MVFR cigs cannot
be ruled out beyond this morning as cu/stratocu cigs increase from
the W/NW along with mid and high clouds as well. Light/near calm
winds this morning will trend more southerly as a stalled boundary
across our northern airspace lifts back northward later on today.
Wind speeds will increase into the afternoon with 10-15 kts on
average and higher gusts around 20 kts across our western sites.

/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  85  71  87 /   0  30  30  10
MLU  66  85  68  87 /   0  10  10  10
DEQ  64  76  65  82 /  20  80  60  50
TXK  68  82  69  86 /  10  60  60  30
ELD  64  82  67  86 /   0  20  30  20
TYR  70  81  69  86 /  10  80  30  10
GGG  69  83  70  86 /  10  50  30  10
LFK  69  84  69  86 /   0  30  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...20