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000
FXUS64 KSHV 200313
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1013 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1013 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

The evening sfc analysis indicates that our cold front has drifted
S into upper SE TX and Cntrl LA, after having been stationary for
much of the day along the I-20 corridor of N LA into Lower E TX.
While this front may drift a tad farther S overnight, cool
advection will remain minimal, with temps not expected to fall off
as much as was previously advertised. Meanwhile, weak overrunning
has commenced this evening atop the very shallow air mass in place
(near or less than 1kft deep per the 00Z KSHV raob), with areas of
-RA having developed over the last couple of hours over portions
of NE TX into SW AR. Also beginning to see areas of -RA
developing over NW TX/SW OK, near an area of PVA traversing atop
weak convergence along an inverted H850 trough that extends NE
into Srn and SE OK. As the PVA increases from the W overnight,
should see an increase in convection late, especially over the
Nrn third of the area as the H850 trough bridges E into Srn AR,
with additional development occurring along an inverted H925
trough extending farther S into Lower E TX into N LA. Thus, the
current pop forecast of high chance/likely still looks good late
over these areas, becoming more widespread after daybreak
Saturday once convergence in maximized between the H925-850
troughs.

As was the case last night/this morning, the NBM was much too cool
with overnight temps within this very shallow air mass, with the
warmer HRRR/NAM 2M temps doing a seemingly better job with temps. Thus,
have trended the forecast more in line with these higher
resolution progs, having raised min temps several degrees as a
slightly tighter pressure gradient overnight will keep the winds
up and the air more mixed, not allowing the air mass to completely
saturate. Did not make any changes beyond tonight, as minimal
warming is expected generally along/N of I-20 Saturday as periods
of convection continue.

Zone update already out...grids will be available shortly.

15

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 621 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

For the 20/00Z TAFs, lower MVFR CIGs will continue across the
majority of ArkLaTex airspace through the next several hours,
trending downward into IFR levels as morning approaches. Showers
and thunderstorms will increase in coverage and confidence across
northern area airspace overnight and into tomorrow morning,
represented by the appropriate prevailing weather conditions.
Northeast winds will continue at speeds of 5 to 10 kts overnight,
increasing to 10 to 15 kts during the day tomorrow, with gusts of
up to 20 kts possible.

/26/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  58  62  50  65 /  50  80  90  20
MLU  58  62  49  63 /  40  70  90  40
DEQ  53  56  45  66 /  50  90  80   0
TXK  54  57  48  65 /  60  90  90  10
ELD  54  56  45  63 /  60  90  90  20
TYR  58  61  49  64 /  70  90 100  10
GGG  58  61  49  64 /  60  80 100  10
LFK  66  74  50  64 /  20  70  90  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
AVIATION...26