000
FXUS64 KSHV 242244
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
544 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 144 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Upper-level ridging will begin to slide overhead tonight, with the
apex of the ridge centering itself by tomorrow. This will allow
for afternoon highs to skyrocket, with some locations reaching the
mid to upper-80s into Friday. This ridge will also temporarily
"shut off" rain chances for most of the region, with the best
chances for showers and thunderstorms being in our far north
zones, at the tip of the ridge. However, this ridge will not be
long lived, as upper-level troughing is ramping up in full force
to our west, setting the stage for a multi-day severe weather
event in the long-term.

/44/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 144 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

BLUF: Severe weather and heavy rain in the long-term. Much
weather, many words, long discussion. Wow.

By Friday morning, a potent low pressure will already be working
its way into the upper Midwest, with a cold front trailing down
into central Texas. This low and cold front will be the catalyst
for our first round of severe weather Friday afternoon,
particularly along the I-30 corridor. The environment overhead
will be incredibly primed, with peak instability values over 2000
J/Kg, and mid-level lapse rates over 7.0 C/Km. Any storms that are
able to sustain themselves and become more robust will be capable
of large hail and damaging winds. Forecast hodographs at face
value appear to be supportive of a tornado threat, but shear
values aren`t all there to truly support one. However, given the
hodograph curvature, a tornado threat can`t entirely be
discounted. The one "knock" against this event, if you will, is
that the best forcing is incredibly offset with the low pressure
way off to the north.

A similar setup will occur into the afternoon hours on Saturday in
the S. Plains, with a small section of our area highlighted in
another Slight Risk. This severe threat seems to be the least
"worrisome" of the three, as the low pressure will take off to the
NE like a rocket, leaving very little room for our region to see
significant impacts of the severe variety. Regardless, storms here
will also be capable of large hail and damaging winds.

The last of our severe chances looks to occur during the evening
and overnight hours on Sunday, when the trough finally gets a
solid kick in the pants and ejects east. Here, the environment
overhead will be rather similar to what`s overhead on Friday.
However, it looks like shear values from a tornado standpoint are
slightly better here, when compared to Friday. Again, the best
forcing looks to be slightly farther to the north, but that
doesn`t mean the whole event will be spoiled because of it. In
turn, all modes of severe weather will be possible, but damaging
winds and large hail should be the main threats.

The last thing worth mentioning here in this endless long-term
discussion will be forecast rainfall amounts into the middle of
next week. Given the extended periods of rainfall, widespread 3-5
inches of rain are possible down to the I-20 corridor. Given
heavier convection, higher amounts are certainly not out of the
question, particularly in our northern zones.

/44/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 537 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

VFR conditions prevailing currently but a mix of low and mid
cloudy ceilings were noted across a good portion of our airspace
this late afternoon. A weak stationary frontal boundary was
located just north of the I-20 Corridor late this afternoon and
this boundary will likely wash out or return back north during
this TAF period. A few spotty showers were noted along and mainly
north of the I-20 Corridor as well but these should dissipate with
the loss of daytime heating. Did introduce the possibility of MVFR
ceilings returning to the TYR terminal towards sunrise and IFR
ceilings at the LFK terminal along with some brief reduction in
VSBY at the LFK terminal as well before ceilings and VSBYS return
to VFR levels by late morning into the afternoon. Otherwise there
will be an increase in mid-level and high ceilings as well during
this TAF period. Look for light winds across all but our NE TX
terminals where SE to SSE winds below 10kts will prevail
overnight. Through the day Thursday, look for a tightening
pressure gradient with S winds sustained near 10-14kts with gusts
upwards of 20-24kts across all but the ELD and MLU terminal
locations.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  65  85  69  85 /   0   0   0  30
MLU  63  84  65  85 /   0  10   0  10
DEQ  62  81  64  76 /  20  20  20  80
TXK  65  85  68  82 /  10  10  10  60
ELD  61  83  64  83 /  10  10   0  20
TYR  65  81  69  81 /   0   0   0  70
GGG  64  83  69  83 /   0   0   0  50
LFK  62  84  69  84 /   0   0   0  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...13