430
FXUS64 KSJT 101057
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
557 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

The cold front has moved through the area tonight, leaving west
central Texas in a much cooler air mass. Highs were as warm as 100
degrees at San Angelo and Junction yesterday, while today we`re
looking for highs in the 70s to near 80 degrees. Low clouds are
currently affecting much of the area, especially south of I-20.
Expect cloud cover to generally persist across the entire forecast
through Friday night.

More pressing, we may see isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms south of Interstate 20 late this morning into the
afternoon hours. While most of this activity will not be severe, a
few storms could strengthen enough to produce marginally severe
hail of up to an inch, or gusty winds approaching 60 mph.

Tonight, expect storms to end by around 7 or 8 PM, leaving the
area under mainly cloud skies, and continued east to northeast
winds. Lows should be in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 319 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

The rest of the weekend will continue to see an unsettled
pattern. An isolated severe thunderstorm possible in Crockett
county Saturday afternoon/evening as moisture and instability
returns and an upper shortwave moves across. Moisture and
instability then further increases late Saturday night into Sunday
morning as a warm front moves through. With precipital water
values increasing to 1.5 inches, as least localized flooding will
be possible late Saturday night and Sunday morning. Some storms
could become severe as GFS MUCAPES increase to 1500-2500 J/KG.
midday Sunday.

There is a decrease in activity Monday as a cold front moves
through, bringing in drier air. Instability does increase
significantly Wednesday and Wednesday night, and along with a
shortwave may produce another round of severe weather.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 556 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

Southern sites have mainly MVFR ceiling heights this morning,
although KSOA is down to IFR currently. These low clouds will
persist through mid to late morning before lifting to VFR heights
by 18Z at all sites. In addition, there is still a chance for
isolated to scattered TSRA for the four southern sites, so have
kept a mention of VCTS or PROB30 groups in for this afternoon at
KSJT, KBBD, KSOA, and KJCT. Expect the east/northeast winds from
10 to 15 knots to continue through the end of the day, but gusts
will diminish by early evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     78  60  71  58 /  10  20  60  50
San Angelo  79  60  74  62 /  30  20  80  50
Junction    83  62  81  65 /  20  20  50  50
Brownwood   78  60  73  61 /  10  10  50  50
Sweetwater  78  60  69  58 /  10  20  80  50
Ozona       77  62  74  63 /  40  30  70  60
Brady       78  61  74  62 /  20  10  60  50

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...20