Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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518 FXUS62 KTAE 050521 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 121 AM EDT Sun May 5 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 931 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024 Fairly significant rainfall continues across portions of Houston county Alabama and especially through Early, Miller counties where these areas have possibly accumulated 4-6+ inches of doppler radar indicated rainfall. It continues to rain in these areas and a flash flood warning continues through the next several hours. Rain and thunderstorms continue points east and south of this area and raised pops through 6Z to account for this and is close to HRRR/CONSShort guidance. After 6Z, models trend to dissipate most rainfall leaving an overnight period where another round of fog is likely through the Florida panhandle and adjacent southeast Alabama counties. Could also have fog in other areas that received rainfall this afternoon/evening. && .NEAR TERM... (Through Sunday) Issued at 236 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024 Scattered showers and thunderstorms (some strong to marginally severe) this afternoon should persist into the evening hrs thanks to a couple of shortwave troughs providing some upper-level support amidst a moist/unstable airmass. Cooler temperatures aloft associated with the lead shortwave directly overhead may be supporting robust updrafts as some convection has exhibited tall cores, frequent lightning, and occasional downburst signatures. Isolated heavy rainfall has been observed as well. The trailing shortwave is aiding in some large-scale lift for non-seabreeze driven convection north of the FL state line. Remnant outflow boundaries could also lead to lead to additional development. This activity should diminish later tonight. Fog and low stratus should develop in its place towards early tomorrow morning while low temperatures once again dip to unseasonably warm mid/upper 60s. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are poised to develop tomorrow afternoon via the seabreeze and perhaps an upstream shortwave lifting across the Upper MS Valley. Coverage appears less than today with the best chances (up to ~40%) in the Eastern FL Big Bend into South-Central GA. Forecast soundings depict a moist/unstable/semi-Inverted V profile which would support gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall. Otherwise, a building subtropical ridge from the Gulf ushers very warm conditions. High temperatures are poised to flirt with 90 degrees away from the immediate coast. && .SHORT TERM... (Sunday night through Monday night) Issued at 236 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024 Another weak shortwave passes over the area on Monday, perhaps bringing a slight boost to our rain chances Monday afternoon. The highest rain chances will generally be closer to the I-75 corridor and the Suwannee River Valley (up to 50%), decreasing to the south and west. Some gusty winds may be possible in the stronger storms Monday afternoon. Wouldn`t rule out some small hail either given the shortwave on top of us giving us cooler mid-level temperatures and slightly steeper mid-level lapse rates. Outside of storms, highs will be in the upper 80s for most areas, though closer to the mid 80s at the beaches. Lows will be in the middle to upper 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 236 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024 Mid-level ridging will build across the area mid-week, then begin to flatten out as another trough approaches from the northwest. Recent ensemble guidance trends indicate that the ridging may not be quite as robust as previous forecasts and that troughing to our north and west could be a bit more progressive and stronger. While it will still be hot, it may not be quite as hot as previously thought. Highs could still reach the mid-90s in a few spots Thursday and maybe Friday, but most will likely top out in the lower 90s. Lows will become more muggy through the week as they climb into the lower 70s. A cold front sinks into our forecast area on Friday into Friday night, which will bring an increase in rain chances Friday afternoon. While it`s too early to determine any severe potential with this system, we`ll keep an eye on it as it appears there could be some overlap of adequate shear and instability on Friday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 106 AM EDT Sun May 5 2024 A mix of fog and low stratus will be possible early this morning but should dissipate by mid/late morning. A few showers and storms will be possible this afternoon, particularly across the eastern FL Big Bend and SW Georgia, however coverage is expected to be too low to include in the tafs for now. && .MARINE... Issued at 236 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024 Generally light south to southeast winds are expected through the middle of next week with high pressure off to our east. Seas will remain around 2 to 3 feet. Some increase in winds are possible mid to late week as the pressure gradient tightens. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 236 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024 Another round of showers and thunderstorms are expected tomorrow afternoon via seabreeze initiation. Convection will be capable of gusty/erratic winds and frequent lightning. Coverage should be less compared to today. Best chances are over the Eastern FL Big Bend through the I-75 corridor. Otherwise, very warm conditions are on tap for Sunday with forecast inland high temperatures around 90 and heat indices a few degrees higher. For Monday, we are looking at more diurnally driven storms to focus along the seabreeze, then drift north past the FL state line. Similarly warm conditions return as highs surge into the upper 80s to near 90. Brisk southerly winds combined with mixing heights up to 5000+ ft yield widespread high dispersions Monday afternoon. By Tuesday, a strong ridge of high pressure aims to suppress convection and serve as a primer for even hotter weather as the work week progresses. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 236 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024 Localized heavy downpours are possible in the stronger showers and storms over the next couple days. PWATs are forecast to be near 1.3 to 1.6 inches, which is around the 75th-90th percentile for this time of year. These storms won`t be widespread, and the heavier totals of 2-3 inches will be fairly localized. Thus, only nuisance flooding of poor drainage or urban areas is expected. Due to the sporadic nature of these storms, river systems will likely remain unphased by localized downpours. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 88 67 88 68 / 20 0 30 0 Panama City 84 69 84 70 / 10 0 10 0 Dothan 88 67 88 67 / 20 0 20 0 Albany 88 67 88 68 / 20 10 40 10 Valdosta 89 67 88 67 / 30 10 50 10 Cross City 89 66 88 67 / 40 0 30 10 Apalachicola 81 70 82 71 / 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ108-112-114- 115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...IG3 SHORT TERM...Young LONG TERM....Young AVIATION...Merrifield MARINE...Young FIRE WEATHER...IG3 HYDROLOGY...Young