112
FXUS62 KTBW 020542
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
142 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 136 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024

VFR conditions anticipated overnight and most of today across
terminals. Then, the sea breeze could bing the potential for
isolated showers and a storm or two to develop in the afternoon
hours, especially near LAL and PGD with a non zero chance for
FMY/RSW. The main concern would be gusty and erratic winds near
showers and temporary MVFR ceilings and visibilities. Otherwise,
easterly winds prevail, before shifting west behind the sea breeze
at SRQ/TPA/PIE.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 750 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

It has been an active evening across SWFL especially where a deeper
moisture column support several thunderstorms. With 500mb
temperatures hovering around -10C, this also led to some small hail
reports, in addition to two funnel clouds across the region. With
the atmosphere now worked over in SWFL, most of the activity has
now wound down. There are just a couple showers ongoing as of this
writing.

However, the East and West Coast sea breeze boundaries are just now
colliding in Central Florida. Could this potentially elide a
couple more storms yet? Perhaps. Early data from the 0Z sounding
shows a deep enough moisture layer for what is most likely to be
low-topped showers rather than large and intense thunderstorms as
were seen earlier this evening. The moisture column is more
shallow the farther north one travels, and there is also a
stronger inversion and sharper cutoff to the aforementioned
moisture. This also should mean that anything new to develop is
likely to be isolated and short-lived.

Just a couple little tweaks to the forecast have been made to the
next couple hours to reflect current trends and expectations.
Otherwise, the forecast remains on track.

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  90  72  90  71 /  20   0  10   0
FMY  90  70  90  69 /  20  10  10  10
GIF  90  67  91  66 /  20   0  10   0
SRQ  89  69  90  70 /  20   0  10   0
BKV  92  64  91  64 /  20   0  10   0
SPG  88  73  87  73 /  20   0  10   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION...Delerme/Flannery
DECISION SUPPORT...ADavis