Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 251918
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
218 PM CDT Fri May 25 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 218 PM CDT Fri May 25 2018

At 19Z in what clouds remain over eastern KS, an obvious MCV was
continuing to move south of the forecast area. Meanwhile a closed
upper low was noted over the central CA coast causing an upper
ridge to amplify over the southern and central Rockies. At the
surface, a convective meso high was noted over the red river
valley. But the central and northern plains had a broad trough of
low pressure affecting the region. With subsidence from the MCV
and a lack of low level convergence, skies have clear out nicely
with temps continuing to warm into the 80s.

Tonight and Saturday look to remain dry as the upper level ridge
over the Rockies propagates east over the plains. Forecast
soundings suggest a conditionally unstable airmass will develop
with the daytime heating, especially across east central KS where
low level moisture is expected to be higher. However a lack of
forcing and no obvious surface boundary or convergence will
preclude any POPs in the forecast for now. Lows tonight should
fall back into the mid and upper 60s with clear skies and light
winds. Forecast soundings prog the boundary layer moisture to
remain shallow enough that any ground fog should be limited. Good
mixing and insolation Saturday is expected to allow afternoon
highs to reach the lower and middle 90s, putting some record highs
at risk.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 218 PM CDT Fri May 25 2018

The upper ridging is progged to persist through the weekend and
into Memorial day. The airmass will likely remain conditionally
unstable over parts of the forecast area through the weekend. But
again there does not appear to be anything to initiate organized
convection. So while a diurnally driven storm could pop up,
chances look to be to small to include in the forecast at this
time. By Monday night, the upper ridge should begin breaking down
and allow for some shortwave energy to move across the area.
Because of this there are some chance POPs across the area for
Tuesday and Wednesday. Confidence in the shortwave details wanes
by the end of the forecast period with model progs generally
showing upper ridging. So the forecast calls for dry weather
Thursday and Friday.

Models show the thermal profiles slightly cooling for the first
half of next week. While it should still be warm with above
normal temps, highs are expected to be around 90. Lows should
remain in the 60s. By the end of the week, the thermal ridge is
progged to build back in and highs are forecast to be back in the
middle 90s with lows around 70.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1212 PM CDT Fri May 25 2018

VFR conditions are expected to persist as satellite shows MCV
drifting south of the forecast area. Low clouds or fog appear
unlikely due to a general lack of forcing or low level moisture
advection.


&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 218 PM CDT Fri May 25 2018

Record High Temperatures for May 26th:
 Topeka: 95, set in 1964
Concordia: 98, set in 2012

Record High Temperatures for May 27th:
Topeka:  92, set in 2006
Concordia:  95, set in 2006

Record High Temperatures for May 28th:
Topeka: 93, set in 2012
Concordia:  96, set in 1921

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...Wolters



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