Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
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352 FXUS63 KTOP 020000 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 700 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A line of thunderstorms moves across the area overnight with continuous storm chances into Thursday, especially in eastern KS. - Drier into Friday before another system moves overnight Friday into Saturday morning. - Active weather returns again early next week with more chances for rain and thunderstorms. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 312 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024 Scattered thunderstorms have continued across much of northeastern Kansas this afternoon along areas of 700mb WAA ahead of an approaching mid level wave. A warm front is noted via surface analysis beginning to move north in southeastern Kansas with a dryline setting up in far southwestern Kansas and into the Panhandles of Oklahoma and Texas. With the showers and thunderstorms draping much of northeastern Kansas for much of the day, temperatures have struggled to warm above the mid 50s while some clearing in central and east-central Kansas has helped temperatures warm into the upper 60s and low 70s. As we progress further into this evening, a few storms may develop along the dryline in southwestern Kansas and move towards eastern Kansas. Simultaneously, lift along the north-moving warm front will help increase showers and a few thunderstorms into the evening for much of the area. Not expecting many storms along the warm front to be severe as better instability should remain near the surface low in southwest Kansas. That said, cannot rule out a few elevated storms becoming severe with large hail as the main threat. The best chance for these will be in central Kansas where better ingredients for severe weather will reside. Later this evening and overnight into Thursday morning, convection that develops just ahead of the shortwave in southwestern Nebraska should move east along the KS/NE border, increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms again. If these storms can become organized and develop a balanced cold pool circulation, could see the possibility of some gusty winds (some possibly severe), and hail developing with this line of convection. This will need to be monitored over the next several hours to see how this convection evolves. Cannot rule out a brief QLCS tornado if this line has a very balanced cold-pool, but does not seem overly great for this to occur as 0-3 km shear vectors may be fairly line-parallel. By Thursday morning, the surface trough will push east with modest theta-e advection along and ahead of the surface cold front. Persistent elevated thunderstorms and showers will continue into Thursday afternoon as that boundary pushes east across the area. PWs ahead of the boundary between 1.25-1.5" point to some localized heavy rainfall along the boundary so a flooding concern may develop, especially with training of storms. Will continue to monitor for the need of any hydro headlines. Surface ridging builds in behind the cold front into Thursday evening and will bring drier conditions in for Friday. Dry weather will again be short-lived as flow shifts back to the south by Friday afternoon, advecting in moisture ahead of the next wave to impact the central Plains. The wave and surface boundary sweep across the area Friday night into Saturday morning with the possibility of seeing strong to severe storms. Another brief break in active weather Sunday before another trough ejects into the region Monday and into Tuesday with severe weather possible again. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 647 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024 Any storms that would be impactful to TAFs look to arrive overnight in the form of a line coming out of central KS. Timing may be adjusted in the next issuance, as well as possibly adding tempo groups for reduced vis and strong winds with convection. Have gone with VCTS during the time period of highest confidence for now. There may be a few storms that linger in eastern KS through the afternoon, but chances look better east of TAF sites at this time. Otherwise, MVFR cigs move in with storms followed by a cold front shifting winds to the NW behind a cold front. Cigs should improve late in the period. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Griesemer AVIATION...Picha