Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 190849
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
349 AM CDT Sat May 19 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Main concerns for this forecast focus on storm potential for today
through the next several days. Early morning radar loops show the
large MCS across Kansas with numerous boundaries noted across
OK/TX. The main synoptic front is over north central Oklahoma,
likely reinforced with gravity waves/undular bores or thunderstorm
outflow. The dryline in the TX panhandle will also be a focus for
convection this afternoon.

For today, showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible just
about anywhere due to the divergent southwest flow at upper
levels. Will keep low pops for parts of northeast Oklahoma this
morning where isolated showers have been persistent overnight.
The main precipitation event will develop late this afternoon
into tonight. The short term guidance and global models blow up a
line of strong to severe storms between 4-7pm along the front in
Oklahoma and the TX dryline. The airmass will be capped farther
east, but the capping inversion has weakened over the past few
days given the observed soundings last night at Lamont and Norman.
Whatever develops west of here will move in tonight into the
early morning hours on Sunday. Large hail and damaging winds will
be the main severe threats tonight, in addition to training
storms, which could produce locally heavy rainfall.

Sunday will be noticeably cooler behind the front, with highs
only in the low to mid 80s. There probably will be a good amount
of remaining convective cloud cover for part of the day as well.
Monday and Tuesday will be quieter, with a building upper ridge by
Tuesday. Low chances for storms will persist through much of next
week, though the chances for widespread severe weather are low
for eastern Oklahoma/western Arkansas after tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   92  65  80  63 /  20  50  20  20
FSM   92  70  87  67 /  10  20  20  20
MLC   89  68  83  64 /  10  30  20  20
BVO   91  64  79  59 /  20  60  20  20
FYV   88  66  82  63 /  10  20  20  20
BYV   88  66  85  63 /  10  30  20  20
MKO   90  66  81  64 /  10  30  20  20
MIO   90  66  80  61 /  20  40  20  20
F10   90  67  80  63 /  10  40  20  20
HHW   89  68  85  67 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....06

CORFIDI



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