Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 181142

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
642 AM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018

Flight conditions are expected to remain VFR through the morning
with deteriorating conditions thereafter, though the duration and
magnitude of the flight impacts are likely to be highly variable.
Widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms will spread over
the terminals this afternoon into early evening. Thereafter a
period of lower ceilings is likely to persist through much of the
overnight hours.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 424 AM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018/

An upper level low pressure was pushing into Arizona early this
morning with a surface low pressure developing out ahead over the lee
of the Rocky Mountains. Also this morning...a nearly stationary
frontal boundary was stretched from West to East Texas and into
Southeast Arkansas. Some scattered showers and convection had
developed along/near this boundary moving eastward. Across Eastern
Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas...light northerly winds and
increasing cloud cover were common.

Through this afternoon...the upper level wave is progged to lift
east northeast and join up with the surface low over Eastern
Colorado by this evening. Also...the surface front across Texas
is also expected to lift northward...approaching the Red River
Valley by this evening. This will allow for shower and
thunderstorm chances to spread northward across the CWA. Cloud
cover and cool temperatures over the region along with the
greater moisture remaining south of the Red River should help to
keep the greater severe potentials for the CWA near the Red River
with the front and further south and southeast of the CWA. Any
storms that develop into Southeast Oklahoma will have the
potential for hail and locally damaging winds being the main

This evening and overnight tonight...additional showers and
thunderstorms are forecast to push into the CWA as the low
pressure system shifts eastward across Northern Oklahoma/Southern
Kansas with a dryline moving into the region late tonight. The
greater thunderstorm potential looks to be near the vicinity of
the track of the low across Northeast Oklahoma into Northwest
Arkansas. The dryline looks to move into the CWA after midnight
with drier air spreading across Southeast Oklahoma to West Central
Arkansas by Monday morning. Elevated instability along with steep
mid level lapse rates could allow for a marginal severe potential
with hail being the main threat overnight tonight.

During the day Monday...the low pressure system will continue to
push eastward and exit the CWA Monday afternoon. Majority of the
precip looks to exit with the low...though there could remain some
lingering isolated showers across the northern part of the CWA
Monday afternoon/Monday night as a secondary impulse quickly moves
through with the upper level trof axis. An associated cold front
is also forecast to push southeast through the region Monday
morning and exit with the departing low Monday afternoon. Behind
the front...gusty northwesterly winds could aid in increasing fire
weather concerns...especially over locations that receive little

Mostly cloudy conditions with the secondary wave look to hold over
the region Tuesday which looks to keep high temperatures in the
50s for most locations. Conditions should begin to clear out
Tuesday night into Wednesday with lows Wednesday morning in the
30s for most locations. These cooler temperatures are forecast to
be short lived as southerly winds and warmer temperatures return
for the second half of the week. These conditions will help to
again increase fire dangers over the CWA Thursday into Friday. Latest
model solutions continue to show another low pressure system
moving into the Plains late week and into the weekend which could
bring a return of shower and thunderstorm chances. For now with
differences among the model data will stay with small pops for the


TUL   62  48  60  42 /  90  70  20  20
FSM   63  50  69  46 /  90  50  10  20
MLC   63  47  66  43 /  70  30  10  10
BVO   61  47  56  40 /  80  70  30  20
FYV   63  48  64  40 /  90  70  20  20
BYV   60  48  63  39 /  90  80  40  20
MKO   61  47  64  42 /  90  40  10  10
MIO   62  49  58  40 /  90  80  40  20
F10   63  47  62  41 /  70  40  10  10
HHW   66  51  70  45 /  60  50  10  10




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