Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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339 FXUS64 KTSA 061829 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 129 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Late afternoon into tonight) Issued at 128 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024 ...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED LATE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT... We are on the cusp of a significant severe event across eastern and western Arkansas. With the cap already eroding across much of the area, the potential for isolated severe storms already exists. Per latest meso analysis, CAPE values are in 1500 to 2000 J/KG range across much of southeast Oklahoma into western Arkansas where the cap has eroded. The cap will likely weaken considerably over the next couple of hours across the last stronghold of NE Oklahoma. As mentioned before, any isolated storm that develops later this afternoon will have the potential to become severe with more than adequate instability and deep layer shear in place. All modes of severe weather possible. The more significant severe weather is expected mainly this evening and into the overnight hours as all the ingredients come together. The airmass is expected to become more unstable as we move into the evening as will the deep layer shear as the low level jet increases. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop near the dryline across western Oklahoma this afternoon and become severe rapidly in the primed environment. This activity will likely spread into eastern Oklahoma this evening with the storms forming in into a line over time and moving east across the area. Any of the storms that can remain discrete this evening will have the potential to produce a significant long track tornado and giant hail. However, the potential for tornadoes will continue within the line of storms as well. In addition to the tornadoes, wind gusts of around 75 mph and hail to around 2 inches in diameter will be possible. With recent rains saturating the ground, flash flooding will also be a concern with 1 to 3 inches of rain possible in a short period of time. Went ahead and issued a Flood Watch for much of northeast Oklahoma for tonight to highlight where the heaviest rains are forecast. The thunderstorms are expected to exit the region by Tuesday mid-morning, && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Monday) Issued at 128 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024 Tuesday is expected to be a relatively quiet day weather-wise across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas as weak high pressure prevails. The next chance of storms will come on Wednesday as a cold front moves through the region. These storms will likely fire up earlier in the day near the cold front approaching Highway 75 in eastern Oklahoma by early afternoon. All modes of severe weather will be possible as this system moves through the area as well. Dry weather is forecast later in the week and into the weekend with temperatures near normal for this time of year. Shower and storm chances increase late in the weekend with the approach of a mid-level shortwave. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 1121 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024 Vsbys/cigs reduced to brief periods of IFR/VLIFR with in fog early in the valid period. VFR vsbys expected after 14z, and cigs will rise to VFR categories by early afternoon. Storms will impact the NE OK sites this evening with a period of IFR vsbys and MVFR cigs in +TSRA in the 02z-06z time frame. VFR elements are expected to prevail at those sites after 06z. Further south and east, timing and duration of convection is a bit more uncertain. Will include a prob30 group at KMLC from 04-09z, and tempo groups at the NW AR sites from 04z-08z(05z-09z KFSM), with MVFR cigs to prevail through the remainder of the period at all AR sites. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 59 83 61 83 / 80 10 10 30 FSM 69 86 65 87 / 80 10 0 60 MLC 67 85 66 86 / 70 10 0 30 BVO 55 81 56 81 / 80 10 10 20 FYV 64 83 61 83 / 80 10 10 70 BYV 64 82 59 82 / 80 10 0 70 MKO 64 81 61 84 / 90 10 10 50 MIO 61 80 58 80 / 90 10 10 60 F10 63 82 62 85 / 80 10 10 30 HHW 69 84 66 85 / 40 10 10 30 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Tuesday morning for OKZ054>067. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM....10 AVIATION...23