Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 231552
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1052 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of today )
Issued at 1049 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

Low cloud deck continues to scatter out, though it continues to
hang tough over the northeast corner of OK. Overall though, the
forecast is trending well and have made only minor changes, and
mainly to hourly elements.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 338 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

Mid/upper-level cloud cover will increase this evening/tonight as
a deepening synoptic trough moves over the Rockies and mid-level
height falls occurs across the Plains. In turn, low-level lee
cyclogenesis will develop overnight tonight, causing a tight
pressure gradient to form. Consensus has south/southeast becoming
breezy overnight tonight, with gusts 30-35 mph possible into early
Sunday morning. The southerly winds are forecast to further
strengthen during the daytime Sunday and into Sunday evening.
Frequent wind gusts in excess of 40 mph still looks probable
across much of E. OK and NW AR into Sunday evening, with the
assistance of a mid-level vort max lifting through the
Southern/Central Plains. If trends continue, a Wind Advisory may
be needed for at least some portions of the CWA Sunday
afternoon/evening.

In addition to the potentially windy day on Sunday, shower and
thunderstorm chances will increase west-to-east through the day
ahead of an approaching mid-level trough that will be ejecting
over the Plains. Its associated surface low will deepen and lift
northeast through Central Plains Sunday evening/night, dragging a
cold front behind it. Strong warm air advection/isentropic lift
ahead of this will prompt showers and thunderstorms to develop by
late morning/midday Sunday. Farther west of the area, surface-
based convection is expected to develop along a surface dryline
draped across west/west-central OK by mid-late afternoon. This
convection will spread eastward into E. OK by early evening
Sunday. Deterministic and ensemble guidance both suggest the
storms would quickly become elevated as the storms progress into
E. OK. However, more-than-sufficient bulk shear and steep mid-
level lapse rates will support a marginally severe hail and
damaging wind threat, at least initially. Consensus indicates
that if storms were to hold together, they will continue to move
into an area of limited elevated instability and limited low-
level moisture that would be incapable of sustaining strong to
severe storms by mid-evening. Thus, latest model data suggests
the severe thunderstorm threat should substantially decrease
if/once storms move east of Highway 75 in E. OK. Details will
continue to be adjusted over the next couple of days.

As rain/storms continue to push into far E/SE OK and NW AR late
Sunday night into Monday morning, precipitation rates are expected
to intensify as the parent mid-level trough reorients itself and
strong forcing ahead of an approaching surface cold front taps
into rich low-level Gulf moisture. PWATs will increase near or
just above 1” (Slightly greater than the 75th percentile for this
time of year). Although the severe thunderstorm threat is expected
to be low, periods of moderate to heavy rainfall are anticipated
through the morning and into the afternoon for portions of SE OK
and NW AR. The heavy rainfall may lead to minor flooding (at least
5% rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance) in this zone during
the morning Monday and possibly lingering into the afternoon. As
far as amounts, a tight QPF gradient may occur from northwest-to-
southeast, with the highest amounts (1 to 2 inches, locally
higher) falling across far SE OK and NW AR. Elsewhere, general
amounts from a quarter-of-an-inch to nearly an inch will be
common. The cold front is forecast to push into the CWA Monday
afternoon and exit during the evening.

Rain chances will end early in the evening Monday. Quasi-zonal
flow aloft sets up and surface high pressure builds in across the
region Tuesday into Wednesday. As a result, unseasonably cool
temperatures will occur Monday night through Wednesday night.
Long-range guidance continues to show temperatures dipping below
freezing for portions of NE OK and NW AR Monday night/Tuesday
morning and again Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. If these trends
continue, freeze headlines may be needed. Next chance of rain
will come Wednesday morning/afternoon ahead of another approaching
and quick-moving mid-level trough. Only light amounts of rain are
expected with this disturbance at this time. Southerly winds
return by Thursday and temperatures will likely rise above
seasonal average through the second half of the week.

Mejia

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 626 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

Large area of MVFR cigs behind the cold front is affecting NE OK
and far NW AR sites. At least brief MVFR cig seems likely at KMLC
based on latest satellite imagery...so inserted TEMPO MVFR
there. Low clouds should scatter out by mid to late morning. VFR
will prevail thereafter with increasing mid and high cloud. Winds
will switch around to east and then south tonight and will
increase with gusts tonight to near 20 kts.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   64  47  65  55 /   0   0  60  70
FSM   66  45  65  56 /   0   0  10  70
MLC   67  48  66  56 /   0   0  30  80
BVO   62  45  64  51 /   0   0  60  70
FYV   65  41  64  51 /   0   0  20  70
BYV   60  42  62  51 /   0   0  10  60
MKO   64  47  65  55 /   0   0  40  70
MIO   61  46  63  53 /   0   0  40  70
F10   63  48  65  54 /   0   0  40  70
HHW   67  47  65  55 /   0   0  20  80

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...30


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