869
FXUS63 KUNR 151112
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
512 AM MDT Wed May 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Unsettled with periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms.

-Seasonal temps through the period, warmest Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...(Today Through Tuesday)
Issued at 110 AM MDT Wed May 15 2024

Mean NW flow will persist through the period. This will support
occasional chances for showers as impulse pass through the flow.
The stronger the impulse, the better the coverage of showers.
GOMEX moisture will continue to be mainly absent from the region,
limiting coverage and QPF amounts from showers. Elongated
deformation zone currently supporting steady rain over the NW FA.
As the mean upper trough system exits the region, this feature
will drop south this morning with showers spreading south across
the region, and ending north to south as drier air filters into
the area. Best chance for rains will be in the morning most places
with rain chances ending this evening all places. Thur looks dry
as the region will be in between impulses. Stronger shortwave will
push east Fri with staunch WAA ahead of this system. Combined
breezy SW flow will allow much warmer temps across the region with
widespread highs in the 80s and a few low 90s. Strong cold front
will move through Friday night, supporting breezy NW winds and
chances for showers, esp across NW SD. Much cooler Sat with dry
conds most places. Things will warm back up for early next week,
with continued daily chances for showers and a few thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued At 511 AM MDT Wed May 15 2024

Showers and isolated storms will continue this morning into the
afternoon. MVFR/IFR conditions are possible in and near any
stronger cores. Showers will gradually end from northwest to
southeast Wednesday afternoon. Conditions are expected to improve
to VFR across the forecast area by 00Z.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...JC
AVIATION...SE