Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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117
FXUS61 KCLE 270132
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
932 PM EDT Sat May 26 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak low pressure will move southeast across the area overnight.
High pressure will build east into the region Sunday and will
remain nearly stationary into Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Convection is finally winding down. Have reports of 3 to 4
inches of rain over portions of Wayne and Holmes County with
ongoing flooding across north central Holmes County. The
remaining precip should continue to wind down from west to east
the next few hours. Skies are already clearing along the I-75
corridor. Expect most areas to become partly cloudy overnight
which should lead to some patchy fog by morning. Temps look
fine.

Previous...Convection moving into the western counties this
afternoon supported by a short wave aloft. This upper trough
will weaken through the evening but the convection should
continue to track east across the area through the late
afternoon and evening. Will have high chance to likely pops
through the evening and then diminish pops from the west through
the evening, carrying a chance pop through the balance of the
night east. Overnight a weak cold front will drop southeast into
the area. At this time am not expecting additional development
with the front. By Sunday morning the weak front will dissipate
as upper heights begin to build from the southwest. Capes on
Sunday reach around 2000 j/kg central and eastern counties
however fairly dry air aloft will be moving in as well. The best
chance of convection will be far east and southeast in vicinity
of the better low level moisture however dry air entrainment
will make development difficult. Sunday night will be dry as
upper heights continue to rise. Lows tonight and Sunday night
low to mid 60s. Sunday highs from near 80 east to near 90 west.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Upper level high pressure will build east over Ohio on Monday
resulting in temperatures between 15 and 20 degrees above normal
for Memorial Day. Temperatures on Tuesday will cool
slightly...but still remain well above normal. Dry weather is
expected Monday and Tuesday as high pressure remains firmly in
place.

An upper low will move north into TN on Tuesday...spreading Gulf
moisture into the area as early as Wednesday morning. There is still
a lot of inconsistencies with timing and intensity of precipitation
with this low...which will be the remnants of current subtropical
storm Alberto. Either way...it does look like unsettled weather
returns to the area as early as Wednesday morning...details to be
ironed out in the next few days.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Models coming into better agreement on next system,  tracking low
into SE low Michigan by daybreak Thursday.  Low tracks east of the
area Thursday dragging a cold front across the forecast area.  Went
chance pops Wednesday night with the warm front, and likely pops on
thursday with the trailing cold front.  After that low tracks NE
into New England then retrogrades south along the east coast. Track
and timing still much in doubt so will just kept low chance pops on
Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
Thunderstorms will impact CAK the next hour or so and showers
are possible at YNG for a couple of hours. Other than that the
threat for precip is over across the local area. Skies will
become scattered for a while this evening but still expecting
patchy to widespread IFR fog to develop overnight as winds
become light and variable. All TAF sites will get a mention of
fog. It will take till mid morning Sunday before it becomes VFR
all areas. W to NW flow will develop tomorrow. Expecting mainly
SCT skies during the afternoon hours tomorrow.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR possible Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Weakening low pressure will drift eastward across the central
Great Lakes today. This will produce southwesterly winds on the
lake but they should remain under 15 knots. Winds may build to
around 3 feet from Conneaut to Ripley this afternoon. Light
winds are expected on Sunday. Another area of low pressure will
track well north of the lake on Sunday night into Monday with
another weakening cold front sagging southward toward Lake Erie.
It appears it will dissipate north of the lake with light
winds. However with temperatures warming well into the 80s at
most locations we expect to see a lake breeze develop. So an
onshore flow is anticipated. By Tuesday the models are the high
pressure will slide to the New England States as low pressure
moves northward from the Gulf Coast. This should produce
incresing northeasterly winds into Wednesday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK/Kubina
SHORT TERM...Riley
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...Kubina
MARINE...Riley



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