160
FXUS63 KDLH 122320
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
620 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered thunderstorms across northwest Wisconsin end by
  early evening. Gusty winds to 50 mph and hail to a half inch
  will be possible.

- Cool overnight lows through Tuesday night will keep chances
  for frost in the forecast.

- Dry conditions will prevail for Monday and Tuesday before rain
  chances return for the latter half of the week and into the
  weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 439 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024

A cold front was draped from low pressure west of James Bay into
western Lake Superior, western Upper Michigan, northwest
Wisconsin and central and southwestern Minnesota. Isolated to
scattered thunderstorms were developing ahead of this front
across mainly Sawyer and Price counties as of 4PM with gusty
winds to 50 mph and hail to one half inch being possible with
these storms. This activity is expected to move south and east
of the region by about 6PM as the cold front passes through.

Behind the front, northwesterly winds have mixed down smoke
aloft from wildfires across British Columbia and Alberta. This
smoke has led to some visibility restrictions across northern
Minnesota and has led to Air Quality Alerts being issued for all
of our northeastern Minnesota and northwestern Wisconsin
counties. Hi-res models show this near-surface smoke clearing
the area by mid to late morning Monday. Additional smoke aloft
will likely push in, but poor mixing conditions should limit it
reaching the surface. Clearing skies and light winds tonight
will allow lows to cool into the mid to upper 30s north of the
Iron Range and into the Arrowhead and a Frost Advisory remains
in effect.

Dry and cooler conditions will move in for Monday and Tuesday
with highs within a few degrees of normal. Despite the light
winds expected (less than 20 mph), afternoon RH values are
expected to fall to around 30 percent or less over most of the
area Monday afternoon. Current forecast RH values on Tuesday
are above 30 percent, but winds will be slightly stronger than
on Monday, especially near Lake Superior with easterly onshore
winds. This may allow for better mixing conditions which may see
afternoon RH values trend lower than currently forecast. As
such, near-critical fire weather conditions will remain possible
for both days. With the clear skies and light winds expected
both Monday and Tuesday nights, additional Frost Advisories will
likely be needed in some areas, mainly in the Arrowhead and
northwest Wisconsin.

Rainfall chances return for Tuesday night into Thursday as a
slow moving area of low pressure and upper level trough move
across the Upper Midwest. Instability continues to look rather
limited with this system with just light showers expected.
Global models diverge heading into the weekend but continue to
show chances for rainfall through the weekend. Temperatures look
to trend above normal heading into the weekend as well with
highs in the upper 60s and 70s possible.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 620 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024

Generally quiet conditions are expected for the terminals
through this TAF period. Showers and storms that formed over
northwest Wisconsin this afternoon have now moved off to the
east and no more clouds are expected through the end of the TAF
period. Northwest winds in the 10 to 15 knot range gusting 20 to
25 knots this afternoon will diminish to less than 10 knots by
04z this evening, if not earlier. An area of smoke has brought
MVFR visibilities to the terminals this evening, but these
should also improve by mid evening to VFR conditions, with the
smoke moving completely out of the area Monday morning.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 439 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024

Light northwesterly winds tonight will become easterly to
southeasterly at 5 to 15 knots on Monday before turning more
easterly late Monday. These easterly winds wil continue for
Tuesday and become stronger at the head of the lake with gusts
to 20 to 25 knots possible during the day Tuesday and again on
Wednesday. This may lead to conditions hazardous to small craft
for a period both days from Two Harbors to the Twin Ports to
Port Wing.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM CDT Monday for MNZ010>012-018-
     019.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BJH
AVIATION...LE
MARINE...BJH