Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 200830
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
430 AM EDT Fri Apr 20 2018


.SHORT TERM /Today through Saturday/...

An upper ridge will build across the forecast area through the short
term as a deep trough moves off the eastern seaboard. This will give
north and central GA dry weather through Saturday...with winds
becoming easterly this morning. Temperatures will moderate through
the period. Tonight will again be chilly with lows mostly in the 40s
but no freezing temperatures expected.

41

&&

.LONG TERM /Saturday Night through Thursday/...

Active fcst period on tap with the main player being the influence
of a slow moving closed low from the west interacting with a
classical CAD wedge from the northeast Sunday through early
Tuesday. The two features will result in persistent moisture
overrunning and widespread continued shower development. Will need
to watch for flooding concerns given some higher QPF trends
(generally 2-4 inches). Included Hydrology section below. Thinking
that the heaviest amounts will end up being where the wedge front
meanders (northern central GA into eastern north GA), which for
now looks to match up in the orientation of the max storm total
QPF. Enough progged instability present at least for Monday
afternoon to include slight thunder mention confined for still the
southern tier.

Kept some pops in for the northern majority of the CWA for Tuesday
into Wednesday as the trough starts to lift northward as it
dampens into the other longwave energy, then guidance has less
consensus on timing and amount of moisture present with several
other potential shortwaves/fronts for Thurs/Fri. Will need to see
more agreement to warrant much higher than slight pops at the
moment.

Temps below normal thru period with coolest days on Sunday thru
Tuesday given aforementioned wedge and precip. North GA should
have limited diurnal range from the mid/low 50s to mid/low 60s.

Baker

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Fuel moisture remains from 6 to 8 percent over the forecast area.
Relative humidity values reach 25 percent...or slightly below...for
about three to fours hours this afternoon over a large portion of
the area.  Winds today will not be as strong as yesterday. However
with such low fuel moisture...another Fire Danger Statement has been
issued for the afternoon.

41

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

A slow moving low pressure system interacting with a wedge of cool
air will allow for persistent moisture overrunning and the
potential for some heavy rainfall totals across the area. Storm
total rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are possible from Sunday
through early Tuesday. Locally higher amounts could occur as well.
It is still a bit too early to tell with confidence where the
greatest amounts will likely setup. Conditions could warrant a
Flood Watch in future updates so please monitor the forecast.

Baker

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z Update...
VFR expected through the period with only patches of cirrus.
Winds will turn to the northeast by daybreak. Wind speeds should
be less than 10kt until around 14z...then increasing to 10 to 12kt
for the remainder of the day.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update... Confidence High on all elements.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          69  44  71  49 /   0   0   0   5
Atlanta         69  47  71  52 /   0   0   0  10
Blairsville     67  40  66  44 /   0   0   0   5
Cartersville    69  45  71  51 /   0   0   0  10
Columbus        72  48  75  56 /   0   0   0  30
Gainesville     67  45  69  49 /   0   0   0   5
Macon           72  44  74  53 /   0   0   0  20
Rome            69  42  72  51 /   0   0   0  20
Peachtree City  69  43  72  51 /   0   0   0  20
Vidalia         71  48  75  55 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for the following
zones: Fannin...Towns...Union.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....Baker
AVIATION...41



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