Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 240809
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
409 AM EDT Thu May 24 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build across the Great Lakes offering dry
weather today into Friday. Moisture will begin to increase mainly
south of the Ohio River on Friday, and expand north Saturday and
Sunday. This will bring a return to muggy conditions with
scattered showers and thunderstorms for the holiday weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Mid level ridge to build into the western Great Lakes today as
surface high pressure slides east across the area. Mainly clear
skies and light winds will likely lead to some shallow valley
fog early this morning. This fog to improve quickly early this
morning and in relatively dry airmass only expect some thin high
level clouds today.

With plenty of sunshine temperatures will warm to highs in the
lower 80s and middle 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
Low level flow becomes southerly on the back side of retreating
high pressure. This will allow for moisture to begin to
increase tonight. Temperatures will not be as cool as this
morning with Friday mornings lows from the upper 50s north to
the lower 60s south.

Moisture increases with boundary layer capes of 1000-1500 j/kg
developing over ILN/s far southeast counties over south central
Ohio and northeast KY. Some weak 925 mb convergence is evident
in the model solutions but overall forcing is weak. Therefore, will
continue low chance pops for showers and thunderstorms mainly
during the afternoon over the southeast. Warm temperatures to
continue with Fridays highs in the middle and upper 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Overall pattern indicates continued warm and humid conditions,
featuring above normal temperatures, with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms part of the time.

There will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms Saturday and
Sunday when instability will rise as mid level short waves interact
with an increasingly humid airmass advecting on a southerly flow.
Somewhat drier weather will be possible Monday and Tuesday due to
high pressure building across the Great Lakes at the surface and
aloft, yielding an environment that lacks short wave forcing.
Thunderstorms may return Wednesday as lapse rates increase again
ahead of an upper trough approaching from the southwest.

High temperatures reaching the mid and upper 80s will be over 10
degrees above normal. As we near the end of the month, this
persistent warm spell will result in near record warmth for May
2018, with each day of this month staying above 30 year normals.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure will build east across the Great Lakes today
offering dry weather. In this relatively dry airmass expect to
only observe some high level cirrus clouds.

Clear skies and light winds may allow river valley fog to result
in MVFR vsby restrictions at KLUK toward daybreak. KILN may also
see a brief period of MVFR fog prior to sunrise. Otherwise...expect
VFR conditions through the day with east winds at less than 10
kts.

OUTLOOK...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible
Saturday through Monday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...Coniglio
AVIATION...AR



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