Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 231341
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
941 AM EDT Mon Apr 23 2018

.UPDATE...
An upper trough with an associated cold front creep toward the
west central and southwest FL coast today with deep southwest to
west flow streaming in an moist airmass. The deepest moisture is
in a swath across the Nature coast and southwestward over the
Gulf early this morning and will be pushing into eastern FL during
the day.

Scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorm have been ongoing
from before sunrise over and off the coast from Tampa Bay north
with isolated showers over the Gulf waters west of the coast from
Tampa Bay to Fort Meyers. The greatest coverage is expected north
of Tampa Bay during the remainder of the morning then shifts
north and northwest. More sparse coverage will traverse the
counties south of Tampa Bay during the afternoon. Westerly flow in
afternoon sea breezes will keep the best odds inland with a strong
storm or two possible. Current forecast on track with no updates
planned but may make a few minor adjustments down the road.

&&

.AVIATION...
23/12Z TAFs. BKN VFR CIGS through most of the period...but with
BKN high MVFR late night along with limited BR at fog prone LAL
and PGD. ISOLD SHRA this morning and early afternoon for northern
terminals...later in the afternoon at southern ones. Only LAL
could see some TSRA. SE to S winds become SWERLY and gusty at
times in the afternoon...then diminishing over night.

&&

.MARINE...
Approaching cold front...well west of the waters this morning...
will keep gentle to moderate south to southwest winds in place
today. Main concern will be locally higher winds and seas near
isolated thunderstorms.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  83  70  80  67 /  40  40  40  10
FMY  87  71  85  67 /  30  30  30  30
GIF  85  69  84  63 /  60  40  40  30
SRQ  82  70  81  67 /  30  40  40  20
BKV  83  65  80  61 /  40  30  20  10
SPG  82  71  80  67 /  30  40  40  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...09/Rude
UPPER AIR...42/Norman
DECISION SUPPORT...25/Davis



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