575
FXUS62 KTBW 060742
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
342 AM EDT Mon May 6 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 342 AM EDT Mon May 6 2024

As the work week gets underway, high pressure continues to have the
spotlight. Broad, upper-level ridging remains over the Florida
peninsula as a surface high sits off the New England Coast. A
predominantly ESE flow remains favored with this setup, advecting
some moisture in from the Caribbean. Overall, this setup is one
that is likely to only become increasingly common over the next
month to month and a half.

However, the atmosphere has yet to take on a fully summertime
setup. The mid-levels remain drier and a little cooler,
suggesting more stability and continued challenges to convective
growth. With PWATs only expected to the 1.5 to 1.6 inch range this
afternoon, that is basically just the absolute minimum needed to
get storms to develop. Overall coverage shouldn`t look too
different than how it did tonight in response. Thunderstorms won`t
really kick off until later in the afternoon and into the evening
when the east coast sea breeze finally meets the more trapped
west coast sea breeze somewhere probably just a little east of
I-75. Only along this collision where there is additional moisture
pooling and enhanced vertical ascent are thunderstorms
anticipated to develop. From there, a few more isolated cells may
develop along outflow boundaries, especially if these boundaries
collide with one another, but that overall should be pretty
limited.

In response to these trends, afternoon POPs really only peak around
20% for most areas. They are slightly higher across a small section
of the Nature Coast, but still on the low side overall. While a few
spots most certainly will see some rain again today, the likelihood
for any one spot is low at this time.

A similar outcome should repeat for the next couple days, but
changes to the synoptic pattern will have an increased influence on
our expected conditions by mid-to-late week. Stronger ridging is
forecast to build in, favoring more subsidence to limit convective
growth. Winds are also expected to veer to more of a southerly,
then WSW direction by Wednesday as well, limiting some of the
available moisture as well. By late week, a digging trough in the
Great Lakes region will try and push a "cold" front through the
region. While the added instability and moisture could yield a few
more storms (some of which could be stronger with a modified
continental airmass aloft), there won`t be much noticeable change
to overall conditions otherwise. With it being May now, the warmer
and increasingly humid weather is largely here to stay.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 145 AM EDT Mon May 6 2024

A few isolated thunderstorms are possible this afternoon along the
sea breeze boundary. This is most likely to occur when the east
coast and west coast sea breeze boundaries collide late this
afternoon. With a prevailing easterly flow, this should limit
eastward propagation once again, meaning there is a low chance
that a thunderstorm could impact most terminals. This is really
the only notable aviation hazard for the next few days.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 342 AM EDT Mon May 6 2024

An easterly flow continues, but is expected to turn onshore during
the afternoon hours as the west coast sea breeze develops. While
some thunderstorms could develop along this boundary, most activity
should remain over land. However, Southwest Florida is more likely
to see a storm make it out over the water than other areas. Other
than locally hazardous winds and seas in the vicinity of
thunderstorms, no major marine hazards are forecast through the
middle of the week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 342 AM EDT Mon May 6 2024

Warm and dry weather continues across the area, with a few isolated
showers and thunderstorms forecast late in the afternoon and into
the evening for the next few days. With lighter winds and RH values
above critical thresholds, red flag conditions are not expected,
despite continued drying in most locations with little-to-no rain.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  89  74  89  75 /  20  10  10   0
FMY  91  72  92  74 /  20  10  20   0
GIF  91  70  94  71 /  20  20  30   0
SRQ  88  72  89  72 /  10  10  10   0
BKV  91  66  91  66 /  20  10  10   0
SPG  87  76  87  76 /  10  10  10   0

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 6
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 4

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

Flannery