Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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000
FNUS72 KMFL 270824
FWSMFL

Spot Forecast for Avian Complex...NPS Big Cypress
National Weather Service Miami FL
424 AM EDT Sun May 27 2018

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0800 EDT on May 27.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (305) 229-4522, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...
Widespread rain and a few thunderstorms are expected through the
remainder of the holiday weekend, with general rainfall amounts of
2 to 4 inches possible. Very gusty winds are also expected with
the heavier showers and thunderstorms, with sustained winds away
from convection out of the southeast at 10 to 20 mph likely
leading to excellent dispersion.


.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (95-100 percent). Showers with isolated
                    thunderstorms.
Max temperature.....Around 84.
Min humidity........72 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 8 to 12 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.
Chance of pcpn......90 percent.
LAL.................1-8 strikes.
Mixing height.......300-1700 ft AGL...increasing to 2300-2500 ft
                    AGL early.
Transport winds.....South 24 to 33 mph.
Dispersion index....31...increasing to 53,...then increasing to 67
                    early...decreasing to 55 late in the afternoon.
LVORI...............4.

TIME (EDT)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........100 100 100 96  96  96  100 100 100 100
Weather cov.....DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF NUM
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO
Temp............72  77  80  81  83  82  83  84  83  81
RH..............100 88  82  79  75  77  75  72  72  78
20 ft wind dir..SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 ft wind dir..140 150 160 170 170 170 170 170 170 170
20 ft wind spd..8   8   10  12  12  12  12  12  12  10
20 ft wind gust.10  11  13  14  14  14  14  14  14  13
Mix hgt (kft)...0.3 1.0 1.7 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.3
TRANSP WIND DIR.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
TRANSP WIND SPD.24  28  31  33  32  31  30  29  28  25
Dispersion idx..27  34  53  68  71  69  66  63  58  51
LVORI...........4   4   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
Chc of pcpn (%).90  90  90  80  80  80  80  80  80  70
LAL.............2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Numerous showers with
                    isolated thunderstorms until just after
                    midnight,...then scattered showers with
                    isolated thunderstorms early in the morning.
Min temperature.....Around 71.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 9 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
LAL.................1-8 strikes.
Mixing height.......300-1700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 14 to 20 mph...decreasing to 6 to 9 mph
                    until just after midnight.
Dispersion index....34...decreasing to 6.
LVORI...............6.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........100 100 99  99  99  95  95  95  100 100 100 80
Weather cov.....NUM NUM NUM NUM NUM NUM NUM NUM SCT SCT SCT SCT
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO
Temp............79  79  77  75  74  73  73  73  73  72  72  71
RH..............83  79  86  90  97  99  96  98  95  97  98  99
20 ft wind dir..S   S   SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 ft wind dir..170 160 150 150 160 160 160 170 170 170 170 170
20 ft wind spd..9   8   8   7   7   6   6   6   6   6   5   5
20 ft wind gust.12  11  10  8   8   7   7   7   7   7   6   6
Mix hgt (kft)...1.7 1.0 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
TRANSP WIND DIR.S   S   SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
TRANSP WIND SPD.20  14  9   8   7   8   7   7   7   7   6   6
Dispersion idx..34  17  9   7   7   7   6   6   7   6   6   4
LVORI...........3   3   5   5   6   7   6   7   6   7   7   8
Chc of pcpn (%).70  70  60  60  60  60  60  60  50  50  50  50
LAL.............2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2

.MEMORIAL DAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Scattered showers with
                    isolated thunderstorms in the morning,...then
                    showers with isolated thunderstorms early.
Max temperature.....Around 85.
Min humidity........65 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 8 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms.
Chance of pcpn......80 percent.
LAL.................1-8 strikes.
Mixing height.......300-1900 ft AGL...increasing to 2400-2900 ft
                    AGL early.
Transport winds.....South 3 to 10 mph...increasing to 17 to 26 mph
                    in the late morning and afternoon.
Dispersion index....5...increasing to 15 late in the
                    morning,...then increasing to 33...increasing
                    to 57 early...increasing to 60...decreasing to
                    47 late in the afternoon.
LVORI...............5.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........80     90     90     88     100    100
Weather cov.....SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD NUMRUS DEFNTE DEFNTE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD
Temp............71     75     81     84     84     84
RH..............100    95     78     70     68     65
20 ft wind dir..S      S      S      S      S      S
20 ft wind dir..170    170    170    170    170    170
20 ft wind spd..5      5      8      8      8      8
20 ft wind gust.6      6      10     11     11     11
MIX HGT (FT)....300    300    1900   2800   2900   2600
TRANSPORT WIND..S 5    S 6    S 17   S 26   S 26   S 26
Dispersion idx..3      6      33     60     63     56
LVORI...........9      7      3      3      2      1
Chc of pcpn (%).50     60     60     60     80     80
LAL.............2      2      2      2      2      2

$$
Forecaster...Konarik
Requested by...Carol O'Bryan
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 1810564.0/MFL


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