Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 221554
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1054 AM CDT Tue May 22 2018

.SHORT TERM...
The morning water vapor imagery depicts our weak shear axis that
still lingers across Ecntrl TX before becoming more inverted
across extreme Ern OK/Wcntrl AR, where sct convection has
developed here from near MEZ to just N of HOT. This shear axis
developed a broad upper low pressure area just off the SE TX
coast, although the water vapor imagery again depicts a wedge of
dry air on the Ch 9 and 10 surging N across portions of the Lower
Sabine Valley into N LA, which is a reason why the cu field has
been slower to develop over these areas as of 1545Z. The short
term progs continue to suggest that this shear axis will move very
little this afternoon, with the inverted trough to the N actually
shifting farther N of the area, but strong insolation should
contribute to increasing instability this afternoon, but the
surging wedge of drier air per the water vapor imagery may
actually mix some of the drier air down to the sfc once again, as
was the case Monday afternoon, thus suppressing the extent of
convection.

The 12Z HREF and latest HRRR still suggest sct convection
developing this afternoon over much of the region, but being
largely influenced by outflow interactions given the weak shear in
place. Did not make any changes to the mid chance pops this
afternoon, although pops may be a tad high across the Ern zones.
However, given the thinning AC/cirrus shield over N LA/Scntrl AR,
did raise max temps 1-2 degrees to near 90/lower 90s over these
areas especially given that the 15Z obs are already nearing the
mid 80s. Otherwise, the remainder of the forecast is on track.

Zone update already out...grids will be available shortly.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  89  71  89  72 /  40  30  40  20
MLU  91  69  90  72 /  40  30  40  20
DEQ  87  67  87  67 /  40  30  40  20
TXK  88  69  87  69 /  40  30  40  20
ELD  88  68  88  69 /  40  30  40  20
TYR  87  70  88  70 /  40  30  40  20
GGG  88  69  89  70 /  40  30  40  20
LFK  89  70  90  70 /  40  30  40  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

15



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