Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
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833 FXUS64 KSHV 080348 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1048 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 1041 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024 Small evening update to increase overnight PoPs based on some of the evening high-res guidance. This increase was also due to the cap erosion seen on the 00z sounding. /44/ && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday Night) Issued at 231 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024 Active weather will continue across the Four State Region through the rest of the week with above average temperatures. This is due to prolonged southerly surface winds maintaining moist air inflow combined with mostly wet antecedent soils downstream, keeping dew points in the lower 70s. Temperature maximums/minimums will reach the lower 90s/lower 70s as a result. Precipitation will remain possible through most of the rest of the week due to a lingering frontal boundary that serves to focus thunderstorm activity and key atmospheric ingredients for severe thunderstorms (large hail/damaging winds possible) into a corridor across northeast Texas into southern Arkansas on Wednesday afternoon/evening. Uncertainty remains with the spatiotemporal details of Wednesday`s convection and its magnitude across the area, according to the latest high-resolution guidance, while Thursday afternoon convection will occur further south of the I-20 corridor. /16/ && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 231 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024 Frontal passage by the end of the week will provide a break in active weather and above average temperatures through the weekend before precipitation chances return next week. This is due to quasi-zonal flow aloft with a weak cutoff low drifting east in that flow across the Four Corners into the Southern Plains. This low will continue to slowly drift over drier air as surface ridging traverses the Intermountain West, finally introducing northerly winds and seasonable temperatures (maximums in the lower 80s/minimums in the mid-60s) by Friday. Surface ridging will quickly begin to shift east across the Mississippi River by Sunday, reintroducing southerly surface winds and precipitation chances by early next week. /16/ && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 753 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024 For the 08/00z TAF period...Currently VFR conditions across the region. Short-term progs continue to suggest some scattered convection will develop along a stalled frontal boundary just north of the I-30 corridor. So, decided to add some VCTS at KTXK between 03 and 05z this evening. Otherwise, expect MVFR, and possibly IFR cigs to stream into the region overnight at all sites. VFR conditions should return by the end of the TAF period, as low cigs should lift and and maybe scatter out. Added VCTS again at KTXK at the end of the period, as some additional convection is expected to develop along I-30 corridor as the stalled boundary starts to shift southward. /20/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 75 91 72 89 / 10 20 40 40 MLU 73 91 72 89 / 10 10 30 40 DEQ 67 86 61 84 / 30 40 50 30 TXK 73 91 67 86 / 20 30 60 30 ELD 71 89 66 86 / 10 20 60 30 TYR 74 89 70 86 / 10 30 30 40 GGG 74 89 70 87 / 10 30 30 40 LFK 73 90 73 91 / 10 20 10 30 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...44 LONG TERM....44 AVIATION...20