Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 261139
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
639 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday)
Issued at 341 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

High pressure is nosing down across the southern plains with
gusty NW winds over KN/OK headed right in our direction, under
the big parent upper trough. We are looking nice and coolish for
late March, ending up close to 10 degrees below average today and
for lows tonight. The NW winds are deepening from the ground up
to about 4-5kft at this time, as shown on our 88D VAD wind
profiler. Aloft, we are still running brisk SW flow and this will
sweep some mid and high clouds through. Even some low clouds
perhaps over deep east TX and cenLA with higher dew points rising
with heating.

The satellite view shows bands of mid clouds over SE TX into NW
LA, even a few light returns on radar approaching deep E TX. No
pops needed as we are trending much drier with upper 20 and lower
30 degree dew points arriving in NE TX/SE OK and SW AR. The skies
should end up mostly sunny later today, but these clouds will
hamper heating early today, especially with brisk NW winds. So we
are a tad below NBM and close to MAV/MET expectations for the
day.

Overall, this higher pressure is going to lobe down over our
area, keeping the 1025mb core far to the north. However, it does
look clear and become much calmer tonight with patchy/areas of
frost across I-30 and into even some of N LA by daybreak. Lows
will be in the mid to upper 30s there with warmer lower 40s along
and south of I-20. This a large upper trough moving across the MS
River valley and the final bit of turning aloft will swing
Wednesday afternoon and evening.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 341 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

So once again, the clouds will increase. The SPC day 2 has a
general line for thunder over a handful of our far SW TX counties
during the early evening, so maybe a strike or two, but mainly a
few areas of light showers Wednesday evening over and done by
midnight. From there a warming trend slowly begins as our NE winds
run out of gas soon. Wednesday will be looking at mid to upper
60s with sunshine to start and NE 5-15 mph that will start to
veer to SE over TX during the overnight. Then we will see more lower
70s, which is back to average for late March.

Lows will be mostly in the 40s midweek and quickly warming from
there as we head into the weekend with 50s, becoming 60s. High
temperatures will still look for the low to mid 80 this weekend
and perhaps hold off the upper 80s until early next week. Our
first shot as some April showers will have thunder again Tuesday
into Wednesday with another deep westerlies trough moving over the
desert SW. This could impact the viewing of the big solar eclipse
as this same trough drops another deep low off the Pacific into
CA by the end of next week. /24/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 629 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

Surface cold front has passed through the local terminals this
morning as breezy 10-15KT NW winds are present across airspace
ASOS/AWOS. Elevated boundary trailing the sfc front is present
across the I-30 terminals, with mid-level FL120 and higher BKN/OVC
streaming NE across the airspace given SW flow aloft as the upper
trough moves eastward. This will thin out through the morning
with SKC prevailing for many by the afternoon. Guidance still
suggests FEW 3000-5000 ft near and shortly 00z, but should not
amount to much as VFR will hold steady through the period. FL100
and higher clouds look to make a return towards the end of the
period, with more widespread coverage beyond the scope of this
package.

RK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  62  42  67  45 /   0   0   0  10
MLU  65  42  65  41 /  10   0   0   0
DEQ  58  33  63  37 /   0   0   0  10
TXK  58  37  63  40 /   0   0   0  10
ELD  61  36  63  38 /   0   0   0  10
TYR  61  41  66  45 /   0   0  10  20
GGG  62  40  67  43 /   0   0  10  20
LFK  66  43  69  45 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...53


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