626
FXUS64 KAMA 100810
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
310 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 309 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

Latest 08Z satellite analysis shows the main H500 cut off low
centered near Zion National Park. A residual perturbation from
earlier this morning has produced a few showers across the western
and central Panhandles, but should dissipate by sunrise. As the
aforementioned low slowly begin to drift towards the Four Corners
Region by later tonight, coupled with easterly sfc upslope flow
throughout the day today aided by decent moisture advection lee
off the Sangre de Cristos, showers and thunderstorms are expected
to develop for portions of the western Panhandles later this
afternoon into the evening hours. As the H850 & H500 jet becomes
somewhat more distinguished later tonight, more showers and
thunderstorms should spread into the Panhandles from New Mexico.
The best chances of rainfall overall for the Panhandles will be
overnight tonight into the first half of the coming weekend
tomorrow. The main H500 low will finally begin to re-enter the
main steering flow as the better lift and dynamics moves across
the Panhandles. Some areas may get repeated rounds of beneficial
rain and perhaps some thunderstorms. Instability for thunderstorms
is somewhat limited throughout the short term forecast period.
But it is May, and with any established updraft in an environment
with very cold H500 temps, could see some small hail in the more
robust storms that develop. High temperatures today and tomorrow
will range from the mid 60s in the west to upper 70s in the east.

Meccariello

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 309 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

Rain may be ongoing Sunday morning for a portion of the Panhandles.
Latest GFS and ECMWF suggest that some clearing may occur in the
western/northwestern combined Panhandles as a surface low pressure
develops in the vicinity of the western TX Panhandle. The cyclonic
flow would act to create downsloping westerly surface winds through
the western TX Panhandle with southerly surface winds in the east,
creating a surface trough. Additional showers and possible
thunderstorms are favored to develop Sunday afternoon as additional
lobes of vorticity swing through the base of the upper-level trough.
If enough clearing can occur in the eastern Panhandles and the cap
is able to be breached, a strong to severe thunderstorm would be
possible. There is low confidence in that occurring though. In all,
from Sunday morning to Monday morning, the greatest precipitation
totals are favored to be in the eastern combined Panhandles with a
30-40% chance of exceeding 0.50" of rain, and probabilities
decrease with westward extent with Amarillo having a roughly 5%
chance of exceeding 0.50" in that 24 hour period. All that said,
NAM develops a weak surface low in southeastern Colorado which
keeps the Panhandles in southerly flow throughout the day. This
solution would still favor rain and possible thunderstorms, but
would result in persistent cloud cover throughout the day and
temperatures staying in the 60s with little to no threat for
severe thunderstorms. Nonetheless, a cold front moves through
Sunday night as the trough begins to depart.

Temperatures begin to warm back into the 70s on Monday and 80s on
Tuesday. An upper-level trough approaches the Panhandles later on
Tuesday and surface winds turn southerly, drawing low-level moisture
back into the Panhandles. Wednesday will be the next chance for rain
for the area and it is that time of year where a strong to severe
thunderstorm threat can`t be ruled out, but it`s too early to
discuss details. Significant differences in the deterministic models
and their respective ensemble means appear quickly after Wednesday`s
weather system.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1223 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

VFR conditions are expected throughout the 06Z TAF period at all
TAF sites. Winds will start out of the north and become more
easterly towards the end of the TAF period with winds 5-15 kts.
Mid level clouds from sct to bkn will occur throughout the TAF
period.

Meccariello

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                73  51  68  51 /  10  10  60  70
Beaver OK                  77  50  78  52 /  10  10  20  50
Boise City OK              68  47  66  47 /  20  20  70  60
Borger TX                  77  52  74  54 /  10  10  50  60
Boys Ranch TX              73  50  70  51 /  10  20  70  70
Canyon TX                  72  51  67  50 /  10  20  60  70
Clarendon TX               75  53  69  53 /  10  10  50  60
Dalhart TX                 69  46  67  46 /  10  20  70  70
Guymon OK                  73  48  73  50 /  10  10  40  60
Hereford TX                72  51  69  51 /  10  20  70  70
Lipscomb TX                77  52  77  53 /  10  10  10  60
Pampa TX                   74  51  72  53 /  10  10  30  60
Shamrock TX                77  53  73  53 /  10  10  20  60
Wellington TX              78  54  72  53 /  10  10  30  50

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...29