Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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000
FXXX12 KWNP 290031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2024 Mar 29 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached high levels. Region 3615 (S13W69,
Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) produced the strongest events of the period, an
X1.1/3b flare (R3 - Strong) at 28/2101 UTC and two impulsive M-class
flares; an M7.1/1n flare (R2-Moderate) at 28/0629 UTC and an M6.1 flare
(R2) at 28/1556 UTC. The region continued to develop and added area to
its trailer spots while maintaining multiple deltas in the intermediate
and trailer portion of the group. The remaining numbered regions were
mostly stable or in decay.

GOES-16 SUVI 304 angstroms imagery suggests that a C8.4 flare at 28/0943
UTC from Region 3615 did result in ejecta. Subsequent SOHO/LASCO C2
imagery contained a faint and narrow ejecta that is not suspected to be
Earth-directed. With the X1.1 event at 28/2101 UTC, SOHO/LASCO imagery
indicated slow-moving ejecta off the SW limb, first visible at 28/2124
UTC. Analysis is ongoing for any Earth-directed component. No other
potentially Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph
imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to continue at moderate to high levels
(R1-R2/Minor-Moderate), with a chance for an X-class flares (R3/Strong),
over 29-30 Mar primarily due to the flare potential of Region 3615.
As Region 3615 rotates beyond the western limb, R1 (Minor) or greater
events are no longer likely.

Energetic Particles

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was near background levels. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels.

.Forecast...
A slight chance for S1 (Minor) solar radiation storms will persist
through 30 Mar primarily due to the potential and location of AR 3615.
As AR 3615 rotates off of the visible disk after 30 Mar, S1 or greater
radiation storms will no longer be likely. There is a chance for the
greater than 2 MeV electron flux to reach high levels beginning on 30
Mar.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters returned to nominal levels. Total magnetic field
strength was below 5 nT. Solar wind speeds ended the period near ~400
km/s. Phi angle was predominantly negative.

.Forecast...
Solar wind conditions may become slightly elevated by late 29 Mar
under weak, negative polarity CH HSS influences, which may continue
through 30 Mar. A possible weak enhancement from the periphery of a CME
that left the Sun on 26 Mar is possible over 31 Mar.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to isolated unsettled levels.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is likely to be at mostly quiet levels, with
potential isolated periods of unsettled conditions, over the next three
days.


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