055
FXUS64 KSJT 051855
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
155 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 155 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Mainly a dry forecast the next 24 hours. Still could see a few
showers and storms develop along the I-10 corridor late this
afternoon but the bulk of any thunderstorm activity should
remain south of the area. Instability is rather weak due to
considerable cloud cover, so the threat for strong/severe
storms is low. Will maintain low POPs south of a Brady to
Ozona line this afternoon. May see some patchy fog develop over
southeast sections late tonight and early Monday morning, and
keep some patchy fog in the forecast over this area. Temperatures
will be mild tonight, due to plenty of stratus overnight into
Monday morning, with lows in the 60s.

On Monday, a negatively tilted shortwave trough will lift
northeast across the Rockies and into the central Plains by
Monday evening. A dryline will mix east and extend from northwest
Oklahoma, south across southwest Oklahoma and into central
potions of our forecast area by late afternoon. Strong to severe
thunderstorms are expected east of the dryline late Monday
afternoon and evening, with the greatest threat for significant
severe weather across Oklahoma into Kansas. Upper level support
will be much weaker farther south into the Big Country, but cannot
rule out a storm or two. Will keep POPs at 20 percent across far
northeast portions of the Big Country for now. Expect warmer
temperatures on Monday, with highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 328 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

By 12Z Monday, a strong negatively tilted trough will begin to move
out of the Rockies and into the Central Plains. As this begins to
move east, the trough axis will extend south into our area. A
dryline, extending from the surface low in Colorado to the Texas Big
Bend will begin to mix east through the day on Monday. By 21Z, the
dryline should be moving into our western counties. Given the moist
and unstable airmass ahead of the dryline, showers and storms will
be possible during the afternoon and early evening hours, mainly for
areas east of an Anson to Junction line. SPC has outlined northern
portions of the Big Country in a Day 2 Marginal Risk with their
Slight Risk just clipping portions of Throckmorton County. While a
significantly better chance for severe weather will be well off to
our north in south-central Kansas and western Oklahoma where the
better upper level support and shear will exist, enough shear and
instability will be co-located in the Big Country to warrant a
chance for severe weather. Further south, shear will be weaker and
mid/upper level support wanes so the severe threat looks to
decrease, though some strong storms cannot be ruled out. Storms
should move fairly quickly off to the east with chances for storms
ending after 00Z Tuesday. With skies expected to clear from west to
east during the day Monday, warmer temperatures are expected to
reside in the Concho Valley, Northern Edwards Plateau, and western
Big Country, where highs will climb into the upper 80s to low 90s.
Far western portions of the area could even approach the mid 90s
should the dryline make a bit more progress during the day,
allowing for more warm, downsloping westerlies. Further east,
temperatures will be near normal in the low to mid 80s.

Warm and dry conditions are expected through mid-week. The dryline
is not expected to make a large scale retreat during the overnight
hours Tuesday and Wednesday, meaning it can make further eastward
progress during the day. West to southwest winds behind the dryline
will usher in much warmer and drier air. At the same time, the
850 mb thermal ridge will begin to build back into our area.
Combining these factors with mostly sunny skies, this will allow
for a warming trend with highs by Wednesday ranging from the upper
80s in the Big Country to the upper 90s across the Concho Valley
and I-10 corridor.

By late Wednesday, a dry cold front will start to move into northern
portions of the CWA. This should continue to move through the area
during the day before exiting to our south later in the day on
Thursday. Timing this far out is still a bit subjective but the
front will bring in much cooler temperatures for the weekend with
highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s. While operational models tend to
keep the area dry behind the cold front through Saturday,
ensemble guidance is hinting at slight chances for showers and
storms as low level moisture begins to make its way back into the
region with the potential return of southwest flow aloft.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

A combination of MVFR and VFR ceilings will persist across the
area through evening, with MVFR/IFR ceilings areawide after 06Z
Monday. IFR ceilings early Monday should be confined to the
southern terminals, with ceilings lifting to MVFR by late
morning. Could see a few showers or thunderstorms develop near
KJCT late this afternoon and will include VCTS for a few hours
this forecast cycle. Expect winds to remain mainly light the next
24 hours, but could see some gusts around 18 kts at KSJT and KABI
towards the end of the forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     66  88  60  89 /  10  10   0   0
San Angelo  66  91  63  93 /  10  10   0   0
Junction    68  88  68  94 /  20  10   0   0
Brownwood   66  84  64  88 /  10  20   0   0
Sweetwater  66  90  59  89 /  10   0   0   0
Ozona       67  89  64  91 /  10  10   0   0
Brady       67  83  67  89 /  10  20   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...24