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000
FXUS64 KSJT 201839
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
139 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

As of 3 AM, scattered showers and thunderstorms were occurring over
the northern Big Country, in an area of isentropic lift. With this
elevated convection, small hail is possible with a few of the
storms. A mid-level shortwave trough will move east across New
Mexico today, and into West Texas this evening. With the attendant
lift/upper support from the approaching shortwave trough into a
moist environment (precipitable water values 1 to 1.5 inches), a
more widespread rain event will unfold for our area mainly this
afternoon and early evening, but possibly developing around midday.
Isolated to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are expected
this morning. A larger and more organized area of showers and
thunderstorms is expected to develop just west of our area around
midday, and move east across our area this afternoon and early
evening, before exiting our eastern and southeastern counties early
tonight.

The convection is expected to be elevated, but mid-level lapse rates
will support a possibility of hail with the stronger storms. The
area generally south of a line from Brownwood to Water Valley to the
Panhandle of northwest Tom Green County is in a Marginal risk for
severe storms in the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook. The main hail
concern is with the more organized area of storms which will move
through this afternoon. For today into early tonight, rainfall
amounts look to be generally between one-half inch and 1.25
inches, with localized amounts over 1.5 inches possible. Heavy
rain in a short period of time may result in street/roadway
flooding, and minor flooding of low-lying areas.

Temperatures will remain cool today and tonight, with cloudy skies
and northeast or north-northeast winds. Highs today are expected to
range from mostly the mid 50s in the Big Country, to the mid 60s in
our southern counties. Seeing indications in a few of the models
for these highs to be in the early to mid-morning hours, with
temperatures dropping off a few degrees and then remaining steady
through the rest of the day. Overnight lows tonight should be
mostly in the mid to upper 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 137 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Cold temperatures are forecast Monday morning, with overnight lows in
the low to mid 40s. A pleasant day is forecast on Monday with highs
topping out in the low to mid 70s. Expect a steady warm up through
the week, with highs on Tuesday through Thursday into the 80s, and
highs Friday into the weekend in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

An upper level trough is forecast to track across the northern
Plains Tuesday, sending a cold front south to near the Red River by
Wednesday morning. This front may be the focus for shower and
thunderstorms activity, but is forecast to generally remain north of
our area. For now, have kept some slight chance PoPs across the
northern Big Country on Wednesday. The next upper level trough is
forecast to track across the Desert Southwest Wednesday night into
Thursday morning, then across the Texas Panhandle Thursday night.
This will bring the next chance of showers and thunderstorms to the
region, Thursday into Friday. Given the uncertainty this far out,
PoPs were kept in the slight chance to chance category. The next
upper level trough is forecast to approach the region next weekend,
which could bring our next chance of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Thunderstorms continue to be widespread near KABI this afternoon,
with more storms developing near KSJT. Both of these sites will
see reduced visibilities and heavy rainfall at times through at
least mid afternoon. Between the storms, fog and drizzle continue
with IFR cigs. Farther south, IFR clouds with a little higher
visibility prevail. Latest CAMs show more shower and storm
development for those locations starting late afternoon and
continuing into the evening hours. For all sites, once the main
area of convection pushes through, still appears fog and drizzle
with IFR cigs will persist through the night and into the morning
hours on Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     45  62  41  72 /  50   0   0   0
San Angelo  46  63  42  75 /  50   0   0   0
Junction    49  65  44  75 /  60   0   0   0
Brownwood   46  62  40  71 /  70   0   0   0
Sweetwater  45  60  43  72 /  30  10   0   0
Ozona       48  61  44  71 /  30   0   0   0
Brady       48  61  43  70 /  70   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....Daniels
AVIATION...07