000
FXUS64 KSJT 200803
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
303 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 204 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

The main concern through the next 24 hours is the potential for
locally heavy rainfall and a few strong thunderstorms. An upper
level trough will be centered across southern California and western
Arizona this evening. Models are indicating a disturbance tracking
across the Edwards Plateau late this evening, then across the
southern half of the area early Saturday morning. This will result
in the development of showers and thunderstorms as this feature
tracks across the region. There is quite a bit of uncertainty on the
extent of development overnight, with some CAMs (HRRR) showing only
isolated shower and thunderstorm development, and other CAMs (NAM
Nest) showing fairly widespread development. Confidence remains
low on the PoPs overnight, but the current forecast shows a slight
chance to chance late this evening, with increasing rain chances
after midnight. The main concern will be locally heavy rainfall.
Overnight lows will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s across the
Big Country to the mid to upper 50s elsewhere.

The aforementioned upper level trough will slowly approach the
forecast area on Saturday. This will result in the development of
numerous showers and thunderstorms by mid to late morning across our
western counties, with this activity spreading east through the
day. Although this does look like a more widespread rain event
across the region, some areas will ultimately get more than
others. The highest totals look to be across the Big Country.
Some locations could see in excess of 1 inch, while others could
see less than one half inch. Any thunderstorms will have the
potential of producing locally heavy rainfall. In addition, a few
strong storms are possible, mainly across the southern half of the
region, with large hail being the main concern. Highs on Saturday
will be well below seasonal normals. Highs will be in the mid to
upper 50s across the Big Country to the low to mid 60s across most
of the rest of the region. Portions of the I-10 corridor may top
our near 70.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 302 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

On Sunday morning, the mid-level trough axis that will have brought
much-needed rain to west central Texas should move eastward to
the Mississippi Valley. This should bring rain chances to an end.
However, cloud cover and cool conditions should persist as a
surface high will settle in across much of central Texas and
reinforce the inversion already in place.

For Monday and Tuesday of next week, the surface high will move
eastward and generate southerly return flow.  Skies will clear out
and temperatures should warm back up into the 70s and 80s through
Wednesday.

By mid-week, models show the potential for another frontal boundary,
this one much weaker, to drop into north Texas, while an upper-level
shortwave trough approaches west Texas.  This could generate more
chances for showers and thunderstorms for Thursday and Friday.
However, there are significant timing differences between global
models with respect to the arrival of the upper level trough and
how far south the surface front will go. For now, rain chances
were kept fairly low until models get into better agreement.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1255 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

As of 1240 AM, have widespread low cloud cover over the area with
MVFR ceilings. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
developed over the Big Country, with spotty rain showers farther
south. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected overnight
into Saturday morning across the northern third to half of the
area, with isolated to scattered showers farther south. Outside of
shower/thunderstorm activity, cloud ceilings are expected to lower
into the IFR category. Indications are for more organized showers
and thunderstorms to develop just west of the area in the late
morning or midday, and for this convection to move east across
West Central Texas this afternoon and early evening. Visibility
reductions are expected in heavy rain accompanying the showers and
storms. Some risk of hail for mainly the TAF sites south of KABI
this afternoon. While winds are initially from the east- northeast
at the TAF sites south of KABI, but expect the main wind
direction to be from the northeast late tonight and during the day
Saturday. Showers and storms should move east of the area later
Saturday evening and Saturday night. Low cloud cover will remain
through the night with mostly IFR ceilings.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     56  45  62  41 /  90  70   0   0
San Angelo  61  46  63  42 /  90  60   0   0
Junction    67  48  66  45 /  90  60   0   0
Brownwood   60  47  62  42 /  90  70   0   0
Sweetwater  55  45  60  43 /  90  60  10   0
Ozona       65  48  62  46 /  90  40   0   0
Brady       64  48  61  43 /  90  80   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Daniels
LONG TERM....SK
AVIATION...19