Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45
000
FXUS65 KABQ 270852
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
252 AM MDT Wed Mar 27 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 223 AM MDT Wed Mar 27 2024

Temperatures will be warmer today but with breezy northwest winds. A
few showers and perhaps a thunderstorm are still possible over far
northeast NM this afternoon. Much warmer temperatures are in store
Thursday with breezy southwest winds. Even warmer temperatures are
on the way Friday and Saturday but winds will be stronger and high
fire danger is possible. A weather system moving in from the west
on Sunday may generate widespread hazardous winds with areas of
blowing dust and dangerous fire weather conditions. Rain and snow
may arrive over western NM late Sunday then become widespread
over the area Monday with colder temperatures and more wind.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 223 AM MDT Wed Mar 27 2024

Northwest flow aloft moves in today, ahead of high pressure over AZ.
Strongest northwest winds are forecast for the central highlands
including Clines Corners, Vaughn, Encino and Corona. Residual low
level moisture along with lingering instability will lead to a few
light showers and showers northeast and east central this afternoon.
A broad ridge of high pressure then builds in from the west tonight
and Thursday, resulting in dry weather areawide. High temperatures
warm to near average for the date areawide Thursday. Additionally,
west winds increase during the late morning and continue through
afternoon as daytime heating helps transport 35 to 40kt of wind
momentum downward to the boundary layer. Strongest wind speeds are
forecast from the central mountain chain crest eastward.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 223 AM MDT Wed Mar 27 2024

The latest model trends indicate stronger winds developing now on
Friday as a weak shortwave trough moves thru the central Rockies.
Ridge top winds will begin increasing Thursday night before
spreading into lower elevations thru Friday. A 997mb surface low
deepening over southeast CO with deep mixing into 700-500mb layer
winds up to 50 kt will generate widespread windy conditions.
Southwest wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph will be common with some
areas near 50 mph along the I-25 corridor of northeast NM. Max
temps are very likely to top 70F at KABQ for the first time this
year under the presence of mostly sunny skies. Strong winds
continue Saturday but with thicker high clouds and slightly cooler
temps. Ridge top winds increase even more Saturday night ahead of
the next storm system approaching from the west.

700-500mb layer winds increase to between 55 and 65 kt Sunday with
surface pressure falls to near 994mb over southeast CO. Widespread
strong southwest winds are expected with potential for high winds in
areas along and east of the central mt chain. Timing of the H5 low
approaching from the west will dictate the overall strength in wind
speeds and how widespread windy conditions continue into Monday. An
area of rain and snow may also move into northern and western NM as
early as Sunday afternoon with the approach a Pacific front from
AZ. Forecast confidence is moderate to even high thru Sunday then
drops off considerably given the complex evolution of the overall
troughing pattern across the southwest CONUS by Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1134 PM MDT Tue Mar 26 2024

A weak and shallow backdoor cold front/wind shift will drop into
northeast and east central NM tonight with low clouds and patchy
fog producing MVFR and IFR conditions that could reach as far
south as KTCC and KCVS. Conditions over eastern NM will gradually
improve Wednesday morning. VFR condtions are forecast areawide
thereafter with brisk northwest winds developing for the central
highlands including Clines Corners and Vaughn during the
afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 223 AM MDT Wed Mar 27 2024

One more tranquil day, despite local critical conditions in the
southwest portions of the east central plains, remains on track for
today before winds increase most areas Thursday and continue brisk
to strong at times through Sunday. As southwest winds increase
Thursday, elevated to near critical conditions begin to show up in
northeast and east central NM Thursday afternoon. Latest weather
prediction models are now windier for much of the area Friday,
resulting in an increase in critical conditions in eastern NM where
some green up has started, but remains spotty at best. Southern
portions of the Rio Grande Valley and central highlands fire weather
zones where winds and RH criteria will easily be met, but ERC`s for
the RGV zone remain below the 50th percentile after recent
precipitation. Flow aloft becomes more southwesterly Saturday,
shifting the strong winds and critical fire weather potential to the
southwest mountain valleys and lower Rio Grande Valley. Sunday
remains a bonafide critical day during of the next week for much of
eastern NM and possibly for portions of the lower Rio Grande Valley.
Precipitation moves in from the west Sunday night and continues at
times through Tuesday morning, mainly favoring the central mountain
chain west.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  53  29  65  37 /   5   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  50  18  59  30 /  10   0   0   0
Cuba............................  46  24  59  32 /   5   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  51  23  63  31 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  45  24  59  31 /   5   0   0   0
Grants..........................  50  22  63  33 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  47  24  61  32 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  51  31  65  40 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  45  27  60  35 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  55  22  63  31 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  60  31  68  43 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  45  18  53  28 /  10   0   0   0
Los Alamos......................  47  29  57  39 /   0   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  46  26  57  35 /   0   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  38  27  49  38 /  10   0   0   0
Red River.......................  35  16  45  27 /  20   0   0   0
Angel Fire......................  36  11  47  26 /  20   0   0   0
Taos............................  45  18  55  29 /  10   0   0   0
Mora............................  44  21  57  33 /  20   0   0   0
Espanola........................  54  24  65  34 /   5   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  47  29  58  37 /  10   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  52  26  62  36 /   5   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  54  34  66  44 /   5   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  56  32  68  42 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  58  29  70  39 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  57  31  69  42 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  59  27  70  38 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  57  30  68  40 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  58  27  70  38 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  58  30  70  41 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  58  29  70  39 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  52  31  63  42 /   5   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  56  31  68  41 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  62  33  72  43 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  46  31  57  40 /  10   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  49  28  61  38 /   5   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  50  24  62  36 /   5   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  51  21  64  35 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  48  25  60  35 /  10   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  50  27  61  38 /   5   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  50  28  62  39 /   5   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  56  33  65  48 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  48  30  60  45 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  42  21  59  33 /  20   0   0   0
Raton...........................  48  19  63  29 /  20   0   0   0
Springer........................  50  20  65  30 /  10   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  48  23  60  36 /  20   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  47  29  66  39 /  10   0   0   0
Roy.............................  50  25  65  38 /  20   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  58  28  73  42 /  10   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  57  29  71  40 /  10   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  55  28  72  40 /  20  10   0   0
Clovis..........................  58  31  70  42 /  20   5   0   0
Portales........................  60  29  73  43 /  10   5   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  61  29  72  40 /   5   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  69  34  78  47 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  60  31  74  47 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  59  29  72  48 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...33


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.