Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 251140 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
640 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Snow totals continue to come down, with additional amounts
  today/tonight around 6 inches across the east, mainly in the
  higher terrain of the Sisseton hills region. Blowing snow
  impacts still anticipated for eastern/southern areas, mainly
  where snow intensity is moderate to heavy. Several changes to
  headlines.

- Cold temperatures persist through midweek before modifying
  toward the end of the week. A couple of weak disturbances may
  affect the region late in the week with the next opportunity for
  precipitation.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 631 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

Aviation discussion updated below for the 12Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 342 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

Currently seeing pockets of light snow and flurries across the CWA
early this morning, with winds generally gusting from 30 to 45 mph
at times. Web cams across the region show visibility is generally
fine, mainly because snow intensity is so light. The main band of
heavier snow is moving slowly northward across FSD CWA and into the
southeast CWA. Models continue to bring this band northward into the
eastern CWA later this morning. Tough call how far west it
progresses, but the northern James River valley south-southwest
towards Lyman/Buffalo counties might be the westward extent of it.
Although, there are varying solutions in how far west the snow makes
it, and would not be surprised if it does not even reach that far
west. Snow amounts continue to come down, and now it could be a
struggle to get even 6 inches across the east, unless you`re in the
higher terrain of the Sisseton Hills. Major changes to headlines
this morning based on all these developments. With the lack of snow
and impacts across central SD into the James valley, downgraded the
warning to a Winter Weather Advisory and also moved up the ending
times. Left the Blizzard Warning in place, but have some doubts
about the severity of impacts there as well. Further east where a
general 3 to 6 inches of snow are possible, left the warning in
place for the combination of the snow and visibility issues that are
anticipated. Will have to monitor conditions throughout the day and
have a feeling more adjustments might be needed in the coming shift
or two.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 342 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

Long range deterministic and ensemble guidance indicates a fair
amount of consistency on the overall upper level pattern through the
latter half of the week into the upcoming weekend. Beginning Tuesday
night into Wednesday, an upper level low is progged to shift west to
east across the US/Canadian border into the Great Lakes region. Sfc
high pressure will be descending southward across the Dakotas
reinforcing a cold air mass and a chilly persistent trend in the
temperature pattern through midweek. Wednesday morning will start
off rather cold for late March with temperatures in the single
digits above zero F and perhaps a few locales dip subzero for a
time. Upper level ridging then translates eastward across our region
on Thursday helping to kick off a temperature modification process.
Daytime temperatures will be back close to 30 in our eastern zones
to the low to mid 40s in our west.

The pattern turns a bit unsettled toward the end of the work week
and weekend. There`s general agreement on the upper pattern
maintaining a quasi-zonal flow across the Northern Plains. Embedded
weak shortwaves are progged to move through this flow and in
combination with a couple of successive passes of sfc low pressure
systems through the region could return precip chances back into our
forecast area Friday and through the course of the upcoming weekend.
At this time, these systems don`t appear they will be well organized
or strong, but nonetheless some light rain and/or snow may be
possible. Temperatures will have modified more at this point with
daytime highs back into the upper 30s to mid 40s, which is still
well below the norms of the upper 40s to low 50s. But, at least some
of the recently fallen snow will be on the melt.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 631 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

MVFR/IFR CIGs will continue to affect the region today, although
KPIR/KMBG are forecast to trend to VFR later in the period. -SN/SN
will also affect the region today, with steadier SN expected in
KATY and perhaps KABR. VSBY in SN and BLSN will be MVFR/IFR, with
higher IFR potential at KATY and KABR.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for SDZ007-008-011-
     019>023.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ this afternoon
     for SDZ003-004-009-015-016-033>035-045.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM CDT Tuesday for SDZ005-010-
     017-036-037.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for SDZ006-018.

     Blizzard Warning until 1 AM CDT Tuesday for SDZ048-051.

MN...Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TMT
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...Vipond
AVIATION...TMT


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