Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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000
FXAK69 PAFG 281003
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
203 AM AKDT Thu Mar 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Light snow will continue at times in the Interior. There have been
some convective components to this snow which has resulted in
briefly moderate snow and graupel. Otherwise, the West Coast is
mostly quiet outside of some snow and wind on St. Lawrence Island.
The North Slope has been quieting down, though ongoing blizzard
conditions are expected through about 10 AM for Point Thompson and
Barter Island. Blowing snow will continue throughout the day, but
winds will be weakening leading to gradual improvement.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Upper Levels and Analysis...
A weakening 503 decameter low in the Bering Sea, southwest of St.
Lawrence Island has provided snow and wind to the Island which
will continue into tonight. Otherwise, a weak shortwave from the
southeast which brought areas of snow to the Interior will
continue to push up through the Brooks Range and North Slope by
tonight. Tomorrow morning, a 513 decameter low will be pushing
into Southwest Alaska with gusty winds, snow and blowing snow.
This does traverse into the Western Interior as a 518 decameter
low by Friday evening with areas of light to moderate snow.
Lastly, a strengthening 510 decameter low will move towards the AK
Peninsula by Saturday morning promoting heavy snow and strong
winds from the West Coast through the Interior.

Surface Analysis...
Currently, a 999 mb low southwest of St. Lawrence Island is
bringing strong winds to the Island with snow and blowing snow.
Visibilities have dropped down to 1/2 mile at times already.
Expect this to continue through the day today. Farther east, light
snow and convective snow showers have developed in the Interior.
Expect snow on and off at times in the Interior as a wave of
energy moves from south to north this morning. Expect strong wind
gusts over 40 mph at times in Point Thompson and Barter Island
with whiteout conditions this morning. Conditions will improve as
the winds diminish after 10 AM. However, another round of light
snow will move in tonight, though the winds will be much weaker,
so blowing snow isn`t much of a concern.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Outside of St. Lawrence Island, mostly quiet weather is expected
today. High temperatures will be in the 20s and 30s from west to
east with relatively weak winds. The only exception is St.
Lawrence Island where a front is stationed overhead bringing
periods of snow and strong wind resulting in lowered visibility to
1/2 mile at times. A total of 2-4 inches of snow is expected
through tonight before conditions gradually improve. A storm will
be moving into SW AK tomorrow morning bringing periods of snow
and gusty easterly winds in the Kuskokwim and Yukon Delta. Wind
in the Bering Strait will turn north-northeasterly and strengthen
through Friday and into this weekend as a result. Gale force
winds are expected by Saturday afternoon which may promote some
blowing snow from the Bering Strait south to the YK Delta.
Otherwise on Mainland, snow will traverse northward through the
day on Friday with a second, stronger storm arriving on Saturday.
This will bring another round of heavy snow, gusty north to
northeast winds and potentially near blizzard conditions along the
coast. This looks to continue into Sunday before gradually
clearing on Monday. Snowfall totals are being determined, but many
areas along the coast and especially in the Western Interior have
the potential to see several inches of snow through Sunday.
Winter Storm Watches have been posted from the YK Delta to
Shageluk north to Kaltag.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Light snow and snow showers will be around this morning but will
clear up as we head into the afternoon. In total, around an inch
or less is expected in Fairbanks with a total of 1 to 3 inches
expected north of Fairbanks and in the higher terrain. Moving
forward, wind in the Alaska Range will be increasing tomorrow with
strong southerly gap flow. Wind gusts may be around 60 to 70 mph
at times through both Windy and Isabel Passes. This will promote
plenty of downsloping, keeping the Interior mostly dry during the
day time hours on Friday. However, we will have to monitor a
strong front from a storm in SW Alaska which may provide some snow
in the western and northern Central Interior as it pushes over
the Alaska Range with southwest flow. We have issued Special
Weather Statements for portions of the Central Interior and
southern Alaska Range for snow, as well as High Wind Watches for
the Northern Alaska Range Passes.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
The main story ongoing is strong wind and whiteout conditions for
the Eastern Beaufort Sea Coast. This will continue through the
morning before winds weaken later in the morning and this
afternoon. Light snow will move over the Brooks Range today and
into the North Slope this afternoon with up to 2 inches of snow
expected from Wainwright south and east. Heading into Friday
lingering light snow may be around during the morning southeast of
Utqiagvik. Otherwise, most of Friday and Saturday should be quiet
and dry. More active weather with widespread snow returns on
Saturday Night and Sunday. Heavy snow is looking more likely on
the southern slopes of the Brooks Range with this event.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
A very active pattern this weekend, especially on Sunday with a
strong low moving into the Western Interior. Heavy snow and gusty
winds look likely in the Western and Northern Interior and Brooks
Range. Around the Tanana Valley, there will likely be chinooking
to begin the day but as winds weaken over the Alaska Range, snow
may try to move in during the afternoon and evening. At this time,
there is a lot of uncertainty with snow amounts in the Fairbanks
area. Nonetheless, winds do look to increase for much of the state
with the Potential for Wind or Winter Weather Advisories to be
issued. An active pattern looks to continue with much colder air,
albeit brief, early next week. There will also be a few chances
for snow next week as fronts try to move across the state.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...
Strong north-northeast winds develop in the Bering Strait and
over Saint Lawrence Island Friday into Saturday. These continue
through the day on Sunday.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ827.
     Blizzard Warning for AKZ805.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801-802-816-817-850-853-854.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ805.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ806.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ813.
     Gale Warning for PKZ815-861.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ851-859.
     Gale Warning for PKZ860.
&&

$$

Bianco


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