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000
FXAK67 PAJK 182301
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
301 PM AKDT Thu Apr 18 2024

.SHORT TERM...

The nice spring weather continues for SE AK today as
clear skies and warm temperatures continue. Little changes were
made to the short term forecast today. Biggest changes that were
made was to reduce the winds in the latter half of the short term
period as well as raise high temperatures for Friday with the
persistent weather continuing for the end of the week.

.LONG TERM.../Saturday through Thursday/...Dry weather for
SE AK lasts a bit longer into Saturday as the approaching front has
slowed down. As high pressure ridge shifts east a trough from a 500
mb low over the Western AK Gulf extends over the SE Gulf then
rotates over the Panhandle from S to N Saturday night into Sunday.
Cloud cover increases and temps return to seasonable normals with a
narrower diurnal range. The front will shear apart as it loses upper
level support so not expecting much in the way of rainfall amounts.
Operational models still have some spread on if this front will
produce widespread precip but ensembles have been consistent keeping
in some light precip over entire area. GFS/NAM/Canadian show good
agreement so leaned towards those. As the front rides over the ridge
another short break in precip looks to occur Monday as another low
moves in from the west. "Active" weather continues into next week
but again ensembles show higher probability of precip than the
operational models, mainly due to uncertainty from blocking ridge
break down, large model spread, and likely leaning on climatology.
Northerly winds diminish as pressure gradient weakens with a
directional shift occurring through Saturday into Sunday. Marine
winds generally less than 20 kts. So overall lower confidence in
forecast details for the mid range.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will persist across the panhandle with clear skies
and localized afternoon sea breezes through the TAF period. Winds
go near calm and variable overnight. Winds increase during the
afternoon, but should remain less than 15 kt with an isolated
gusts up to 20 kt possible.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure over the region keeps a stalled front over the
gulf through Saturday. Strong to near gale southeasterly winds
will persist over the central gulf through Saturday night before
high pressure moves E of the region. Over the inner channels,
generally light to gentle winds prevail with moderate to fresh NE
to E outflow winds out of Taku Inlet, back side of Douglas Island
and S Lynn through Cross Sound.


&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-053-641>644-651-652-661>664-671-
     672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....PRB
AVIATION...NM

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