391
FXUS61 KAKQ 281712
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
112 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure offshore moves south early this week with a ridge
building over the area. Well above normal temperatures are expected
through the week. A weak cold front crosses the area Tuesday night
with isolated showers or storms possible. Precipitation chances
increase late this week into the weekend as another cold front
approaches the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 110 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

-Much warmer this afternoon and evening, followed by mild and
 dry weather tonight.

Upper ridging is building over much of the eastern CONUS this
afternoon, and sfc high pressure has shifted to our S/SE. Skies
are sunny outside of FEW fair weather cumulus. Temperatures are
much warmer than they were yesterday upper 70s-lower 80s). Dry
and mild tonight with lows in the upper 50s-lower 60s with a
5-10 mph SW wind.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 325 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

-Well above normal temperatures Monday and Tuesday.
-A few isolated showers/storms are possible Tuesday.

A ridge remains over the area through the week with well above
normal temps expected. Mon and Tues will likely be the warmest days
of the week with highs in the mid-upper 80s (upper 80s for many)
both days. Some locations may reach 90F either day with NBM 50th
percentile showing 88-90F. While these summer-like temps will
certainly be well above the normal highs of mid 70s (lower 70s at
SBY) this time of year, the record highs are in the lower 90s at
most climate sites. However, SBY may approach (or exceed) record
highs either/both days (see climate section below for more
information). Apart from the heat, expect dew points in the upper
50s to lower 60s both days with dry weather on Mon. A weak cold
front crosses the area on Tue night with a few showers/storms
possible (25-30% PoPs NW and 15-20% PoPs elsewhere) Tue
afternoon/evening ahead of the front. Lows in the lower 60s both
nights.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 325 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

-Above normal temperatures continue through the week.
-Scattered showers/storms are possible Wednesday.
-Shower/storm chances increase Saturday ahead of a cold front.

Aloft, a ridge builds across the East Coast from mid-late week with
well above normal temps expected. At the sfc, high pressure slides
off the New England coast Wed into Thu, pushing a backdoor cold
front into the area. This front will allow for unsettled weather on
Wed with a chance for scattered showers/storms (30-40% PoPs). It
will also keep temps cooler along the coast both Wed and Thu with
highs in the mid 80s inland and upper 70s along the coast Wed and
mid 80s W to upper 60s to around 70F along the coast Thu. Thu will
likely remain dry but kept NBM`s slight chance for an isolated
shower across SW portions of the FA.

As high pressure moves farther offshore Fri, winds become S with
highs in the mid-upper 80s inland and upper 70s to lower 80s E.
Remaining warm through the weekend with highs in the low-mid 80s Sat
and lower 80s inland with 70s along the coast Sun. A prefrontal
trough may spark some showers/storms Fri with 25-30% PoPs.
Shower/storms chances increase Sat as a cold front approaches from
the W (35-54% PoPs). Shower/storm chances linger into Sun (30-40%
PoPs). Lows remain above normal through next week as well in the 50s-
60s.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 110 PM EDT Sunday...

VFR conditions prevail through the 18z/28 TAF period with clear
skies outside of FEW fair weather cumulus today and Monday.
SW winds will occasionally gust to 15-20 kt through this evening
before diminishing a bit tonight, with a few 15-20 kt gusts
expected once again on Monday.

Outlook: Dry/VFR conditions are expected at all terminals from
Monday through at least Tuesday afternoon. There is a slight
chance of tstms at RIC/SBY Tuesday evening, with a higher (~30%)
chc of mainly afternoon/evening showers and tstms on Wednesday
at all of the terminals. Very brief flight restrictions are
likely in any tstm.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 230 AM EDT Sunday...

Generally benign, sub-SCA conditions, are expected through the
forecast period.

Early this morning, high pressure remains centered just off the Mid
Atlantic coast. Winds are out of the south and range from 10 to 15
knots, with a few gusts to 20 knots. Seas are generally running
around 3 to 4 feet, and waves in the bay are 1 to 2 feet (up to 3 at
the mouth). Winds will increase slightly as we approach slightly,
with winds occasionally gusting to 20 knots at times (especially
across the lower Chesapeake Bay). Otherwise, winds continue in the
10 to 15 knots range out of the S to SW today into tonight.

High pressure will gradually shift further to the south today before
becoming centered off the Southeast US coast later today through
Tuesday. Winds will average 5 to 15 knots through the period and
will primarily be out of the S or SW. Seas will range from 2 to 4
feet and waves 1 to 2 feet. A cold front moves across the waters
late Tuesday night into Wednesday, with winds shifting to the W and
then NNW (but still remaining sub-SCA). Onshore flow is then
expected later Wednesday through Thursday. Seas will increase
slightly due to the onshore, likely 3 to 4 feet, but we will have to
watch the potential for seas up to 5 feet (especially out 20 nm)
during this timeframe.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record highs for April 29th and April 30th:

         4/29 4/30
RIC    94/1974  93/1974
ORF    92/1974  93/1988
SBY    89/1974  86/2017
ECG    90/1974  90/1974

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RMM
NEAR TERM...ERI
SHORT TERM...RMM
LONG TERM...RMM
AVIATION...ERI
MARINE...AJB
CLIMATE...AKQ